24194018-20060474F-001-019-2023.pdf

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COLLECTION:

Clinton Presidential Records

NSC Cables

Jan 1999 - Dec 2000 ([Flying Saucer or UFO])

OA/Box Number: 530000

FOLDER TITLE: [01/08/1999 - 12/15/2000]

RESTRICTION CODES

Presidential Records Act - [44 U.S.C. 2204(a)]

P1 National Security Classified Information [(a)(1) of the PRA]

P2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRA]

P3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(a)(3) of the PRA]

P4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or financial information [(a)(4) of the PRA]

P5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President and his advisors, or between such advisors a of the PRA]

P6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy [(a)(6) of the PRA]

C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed of gift.

PRM. Personal record misfile defined in accordance with 44 U.S.C. 2201(3).

RR. Document will be reviewed upon request.

Freedom of Information Act - [5 U.S.C. 552(b)]

b(1) National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA]

b(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of an agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA]

b(3) Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA]

b(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial information [(b)(4) of the FOIA]

b(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy [(b)(6) of the FOIA]

b(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA]

b(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA]

b(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information concerning wells [(b)(9) of the FOIA]

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Cable

PREC: PRIORITY

CLASS: UNCLASSIFIED

LINE1: PATUZYUW RUCWAAA1575 0081948-UUUU--RHEHOND.

LINE2: ZNR UUUUU

LINE3: P 081948Z JAN 99

LINE4: FM FBIS (b)(3)

OSRI: RUCWAAA

DTG: 081948Z JAN 99

ORIG: FBIS (b)(3)

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(b)(3)

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RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT

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RUEHIA/USIA WASHINGTON DC//R//ACCT FBWA-EWDK

INFO:

SUBJ: Bogota TV Summary 081730: BOG 99-005

TEXT: UNCLAS 6Z

WARNING: FTS_DOC_ID: FTS19990108001239

WARNING: A VIDEOTAPE OF THE PROGRAM SUMMARIZED BELOW CAN BE ORDERED FROM FBIS BY CALLING (b)(3) BETWEEN 0800 AND 1600 EST OR BY FAXING AN ORDER TO (b)(3) PLEASE SUPPLY THE TAPE NUMBER (FOUND ON SUBJECT LINE), YOUR NAME, PHONE NUMBER, AND OFFICE ADDRESS. TAPES NOT ORDERED WITHIN 30 DAYS WILL BE ERASED.

WARNING: TOPIC: POLITICAL, ECONOMIC, DOMESTIC, INTERNATIONAL

SERIAL: (b)(3)D801190199

PASS: ATTN BBC LATAM ATTN BBC VIDEO ATTN BBC PART5

COPY TO (b)(3)

COUNTRY: COLOMBIA

SUBJ: Bogota TV Summary 081730: BOG 99-005

SOURCE: Santa Fe de Bogota Inravision Television Canal A Network in Spanish 1730 GMT 8 Jan 99

TEXT:

["National Newscast"; monitored from live relay by Lima Sistema Unido de Retransmission Television; figures in brackets indicate time in minutes elapsed since start of program]

FBIS Report

1. [00] Headlines.

2. [02] Video report: Paramilitaries killed at least 30 alleged FARC, Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, informers in the Uraba's banana growing region. Paramilitaries attacked on all four points of Antioquia with the Uraba region being the worst hit. Antioquia Paz Adviser Ruben Dario Jaramillo this is a reaction to what happened in Nudo de Paramillo and a dispute for control over the region. The vigilante groups also carried selective assassinations in Toledo, San Carlos and Salgar. Antioquia Government Secretary Nestor Hincapie reported that in all 30 people may have been killed. The authorities in Uraba are continuing the search in farms to find more victims. Video of corpses, soldiers removing bodies; Jaramillo, Hincapie talking to a reporter. (texting)

3. [05] Video report: Presumed paramilitaries killed 11 people in Santa Isabel Corregimiento, Cesar Department, in the early morning hours of today. According to a preliminary investigation, 30 men dragged the victims out of their homes. One of the victims is elderly woman who was burned in her home. The Cesar Police

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commander [name not given] stated the Police began an investigation to find out what happened. Video of funeral parlor with several coffins, map of the area, Police commander talking to reporter. (texting)

4. 30 [03] Video report: ELN, Army of National Liberation, took over Jamundi from 0130 to 0600. Rebels of the Jose Maria Becerra Front detonated explosive devices and destroyed the second floor of the town's mall. There were no victims. They made off with medicine, money and clothing. This is the third time rebels take over the mall in six months, but this is the first time they explode dynamite. Video of mall; local resident talking to a reporter; soldiers.

5. 31 [04] Video report: Tomorrow, government and FARC representatives will meet to discuss the exchange and work procedures during the first official meeting of the peace talks. Starting at 0700 today, government and FARC met at the mayor's office with San Vicente del Caguan mayor and mothers of kidnapped soldiers. Their goal was to work out the details of tomorrow's meeting at La Machaca village. The government said the meeting will be held behind closed doors. According to government delegate Fabio Valencia Cosso there is nothing new to report. FARC Commander Jairo stated that if the mothers want it an office can be set up so they can be constant contact with the FARC. Video of delegates arriving; footage of yesterday's ceremony; Valencia, Commander Jairo talking to reporters.

6. [06] Video report: Commenting on the government-FARC meeting, experts feel Pastrana was the winner in view of the fact FARC leader Tirofijo, Manuel Marulanda Velez, did not attend. They noted the FARC missed great opportunity before the international community that was awaiting to hear what the FARC had to say. Footage of Pastrana's meeting with the FARC leaders last year; unidentified men talking to a reporter.

7. [07] Report over video: A survey by the Napoleon Franco firm, commissioned by the "National Newscast," on how people felt about Tirofijo's absence at the start of the peace talks showed most people believed he did not attend for security reasons. Video shows results on screen.

8. [07] Video report: Foreign newscasts reported on FARC and government meeting.

9. [08] Video report: Recapping of yesterday's ceremony in San Vicente del Caguan. Footage of yesterday's ceremony.

10. [09] Video report: Armenia - Ibaque is partly closed due to landslides.

11. [10] Video report: Police blotter.

12. [11] International news.

13. [12] Sports

14. [20] Video report: The father of a well-known model was

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kidnapped.

15. [20] Video report: Photograph carried by daily El Espectador of an UFO turned out to be a hoax.

16. [21] Video report: Private schools are charging for services they cannot provide.

17. [26] Entertainment news.

THIS REPORT MAY CONTAIN COPYRIGHTED MATERIAL. COPYRIGHT AND DISSEMINATION IS PROHIBITED WITHOUT PERMISSION OF THE COPYRIGHT OWNERS.

(endall)

SECT: SECTION: 01 OF 01

SSN: 1575

TOR: 990108144630 M3637748

DIST: SIT: NSC

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Cable

PREC: ROUTINE

CLASS: UNCLASSIFIED

LINE1: RAAUZYUW RUEHBJA0475 0141011-UUUU--RHEHAAA.

LINE2: ZNR UUUUU ZZH

LINE3: R 141011Z JAN 99

LINE4: FM AMEMBASSY BEIJING

OSRI: RUEHBJ

DTG: 141011Z JAN 99

ORIG: AMEMBASSY BEIJING

TO: RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8906

INFO: RUEHSH/AMCONSUL SHENYANG 9746

RUESLE/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 6934

RUEHGZ/AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU 5261

RUEHZN/ENVIRONMENT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COLLECTIVE

RUEHZU/APEC COLLECTIVE

RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHDC

RUEAEPA/HQEPA WASHDC

RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC

RUCPCIM/CIMS NTDB WASHDC

RHEBAAA/USDOE WASHDC

RUEHRC/USDA FAS WASHDC 3215

(b)(3)

RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC

RUEHIA/USIA WASHDC 0458

ZEN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU

SUBI: GUANZHOU FULIAN - A TRAVELER'S TALE

SUBJ: QUANZHOU, FUJIAN -- A TRAVELER'S TALE

TEXT:

WHITE HOUSE FOR OSTP/DBEHRING AND OVP

DEPT FOR EAP/CM AND PRM/POP/MARGARET POLLACK

DEPT PASS USAID/POPULATION/BARBARA CRANE

USDOC PASS CENSUS

USDA FAS FOR CMP, ARS, AND ERS

STATE PASS USTR FOR CASSIDY AND POPOVICH

E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: SENV, SOCI, ECON, EAGR, PGOV, NTDB, UNFPA, CH SUBJECT: QUANZHOU, FUJIAN -- A TRAVELER'S TALE

1. SUMMARY: QUANZHOU, A COASTAL FUJIAN CITY LOCATED HALFWAY BETWEEN XIAMEN AND FUZHOU, MAY HAVE BEGUN RECOVERING FROM AN ECONOMIC SLUMP THAT HAS PUSHED RETAIL PRICES DOWN FIVE PERCENT OVER THE PAST YEAR. QUANZHOU, LIKE XIAMEN AND TAIWAN, BELONGS TO THE SOUTHERN FUJIAN CULTURAL ZONE. TRADITIONAL MUSIC CONCERTS IN QUANZHOU ARE VERY POPULAR. AS ELSEWHERE, CORRUPTION IS A SERIOUS PROBLEM. QUANZHOU CITY, ON PARTY AND CENTRAL GOVERNMENT ORDERS, HAS BEGUN A CAMPAIGN TO STOP THE FALSIFICATION OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS. FARMERS IN THE QUANZHOU COUNTRYSIDE

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SAY THAT NOW THAT THEIR LAND CONTRACT HAS DOUBLED FROM FIFTEEN TO THIRTY YEARS, THEY WILL INVEST IN CROPS WITH A LONGER PAYBACK TIME. QUANZHOU, LIKE MANY CHINESE CITIS, IS ONLINE WITH A NEWSPAPER (QUANZHOU WANBAO), PERSONAL WEBPAGES, BBS, FORUMS WITH SOME VERY OUTPOKEN PARTICIPANTS AND CHATROOMS. QUANZHOU REGION FAMILY PLANNING REGULATIONS ARE APPENDED TO THIS REPORT. END SUMMARY.

2. QUANZHOU IS BOTH A REGION OF 6.5 MILLION PEOPLE AND A CITY OF ABOUT 500,000 PEOPLE. QUANZHOU LIES MIDWAY BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO MAJOR COASTAL CITIES OF FUJIAN PROVINCE -- THE XIAMEN SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONE TO THE SOUTH AND THE CAPITAL CITY OF FUZHOU TO THE NORTH. QUANZHOU'S NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN THE SOUTH FUJIAN DIALECT (MINNAN YU) OF QUANZHOU IS ALSO SPOKEN IN TAIWAN AND IN SOME PARTS OF SOUTH ASIA BY THE MILLIONS OF DESCENDANTS OF QUANZHOU PEOPLE WHO SETTLED THERE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HUNDRED YEARS. EIGHT HUNDRED YEARS AGO QUANZHOU IS ONE OF THE WORLD'S BUSIEST SEAPORTS. THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT WAS LONG RELUCTANT TO INVEST IN QUANZHOU, AS IN NEARBY XIAMEN, BECAUSE OF THE MILITARY CONFRONTATION WITH NEARBY TAIWAN. THE QUANZHOU INFRASTRUCTURE IS BEING BUILT UP. NOW THERE IS A FINE XIANMEN-QUANZHOU HIGHWAY AND THE RAILROAD FINALLY REACHED QUANZHOU IN 1998, QUANZHOU MAY BE ABLE TO ATTRACT MORE OF THE INVESTMENT CAPITAL THAT HAS FUELED THE GROWTH OF XIAMEN AND FUZHOU OVER THE PAST DECADE. QUANZHOU HAS LITTLE HEAVY INDUSTRY, SO AIR POLLUTION IS NOT A BIG PROBLEM. QUANZHOU IS VISIBLY LESS PROSPEROUS THAN XIAMEN AND FUZHOU. UNLIKE THOSE TWO CITIES, MOTORCYCLISTS WORKING AS UNOFFICIAL TAXIS AND PEDICAB TAXIS ARE COMMON SIGHTS IN QUANZHOU.

SIGNS OF ECONOMIC RECOVERY IN THE QUANZHOU REGION?

3. A LOCAL BUSINESSMAN TOLD ESTOFF THAT THE ECONOMY IS STARTING TO LOOK BETTER FOR THE AVERAGE MAN BUT MOST BUSINESSES HAVE NOT YET SEEN ANY IMPROVEMENT. THE BUSINESSMAN ATTRIBUTED THE IMPROVEMENT TO LOWER INTEREST RATES AND OTHER MEASURES TAKEN TO STIMULATE THE ECONOMY BY THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT. ACCORDING TO THE QUANZHOU EVENING NEWS, THE OFFICIAL NEWSPAPER OF THE QUANZHOU CITY COMMUNIST PARTY COMMITTEE, THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX IN THE QUANZHOU AREA CLIMBED DURING NOVEMBER FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MANY MONTHS. IN OCTOBER 1998, THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR THE ENTIRE QUANZHOU REGION WAS DOWN 3.9 PERCENT AND FOR QUANZHOU CITY PROPER BY 2.3 PERCENT COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS OCTOBER. DEFLATION WAS SOMEWHAT GREATER IN THE RURAL OUTLYING COUNTIES AND SMALL CITIES OF THE REGION - JINJIANG CITY WAS DOWN BY 5 PERCENT AND HUIAN COUNTY HAD THE GREATEST DECLINE WITH DROP IN THE RETAIL PRICE INDEX OF 5.5 PERCENT COMPARED WITH OCTOBER 1997. A RANDOM SAMPLE SURVEY OF 600 DEPOSITORS IN 20 CITY AND RURAL SAVINGS INSTITUTIONS REPORTED IN THE DECEMBER 14 QUANZHOU WANBAO FOUND THAT THE PROPORTION OF REPORTS OF HIGHER INCOME DECLINED OVER THE PAST YEAR (HALF REPORT NO CHANGE). THE SURVEY ALSO REVEALED A BROAD CONSENSUS THAT

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PERSONAL INCOMES WOULD IMPROVE IN THE COMING MONTHS.

HOUSING BENEFIT MONETARIZED ON OCTOBER 1, 1998 - REAL UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 09 BEIJING 000475

WHITE HOUSE FOR OSTP/DBEHRING AND OVP

DEPT FOR EAP/CM AND PRM/POP/MARGARET POLLACK

DEPT PASS USAID/POPULATION/BARBARA CRANE

USDOC PASS CENSUS

USDA FAS FOR CMP, ARS, AND ERS

STATE PASS USTR FOR CASSIDY AND POPOVICH

E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: SENV, SOCI, ECON, EAGR, PGOV, NTDB, UNFPA, CH SUBJECT: QUANZHOU, FUJIAN -- A TRAVELER'S TALE

ESTATE BOOM, BUT FINANCING A HOME IS DIFFICULT

4. QUANZHOU CITY ON OCTOBER 1, 1998 ENDED THE ASSIGNMENT OF HOUSING AS A JOB BENEFIT FOR WORKERS. THIS BENEFIT HAS BEEN MONETARIZED SO WORKERS ARE EXPECTED TO RENT OR PURCHASE THEIR OWN HOUSING. ACCORDING TO THE NOVEMBER 11, 1998 QUANZHOU WANBAO, SALES OF RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE IN THE URBAN DISTRICT OF QUANZHOU CITY DOUBLED DURING THE FIRST THREE QUARTERS OF 1998 COMPARED WITH THE SAME PERIOD OF 1997. THE VALUE OF PERSONAL HOUSING LOANS FROM THE TWO BIGGEST QUANZHOU BANKS, THE QUANZHOU CONSTRUCTION BANK AND THE QUANZHOU INDUSTRIAL BANK, INCREASED SHARPLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF 1998 TO A COMBINED TOTAL OF 120 MILLION RMB [1.0 USD EQUALS 8.3 RMB]. EVEN SO CONSTRUCTION HAS OUTPACED DEMAND AND IT HAS BECOME A BUYER'S MARKET. THE INCORPORATION OF SOME OF THE SURROUNDING RURAL LAND INTO URBAN QUANZHOU IN 1997 HAS MADE MORE REAL ESTATE AVAILABLE FOR CONSTRUCTION. LACK OF ADEQUATE HOUSING LOAN FUNDS, THE LIMITED RANGE OF LOAN PRODUCTS, COMPLICATED APPLICATION PROCEDURES, AND INADEQUATE LOAN RISK INFORMATION SHARING AND RISK EVALUATION ARE SOME OF THE PROBLEMS HOLDING BACK PERSONAL HOUSING SALES. MOST PEOPLE CAN'T AFFORD TO BUY HOMES AND SO THE CHANGE FROM LARGE LOT HOUSING PURCHASES BY ORGANIZATIONS TO INDIVIDUAL HOUSING PURCHASES WILL TAKE SOME TIME, ACCORDING TO THE QUANZHOU WANBAO.

5. OVERCHARGING FOR RURAL ELECTRICITY IS A COMMON PROBLEM, SAID THE QUANZHOU WANBAO. THE CITY PRICE BUREAU AND ELECTRICITY BUREAU SET THE PER KILOWATT-HOUR PRICE FOR RURAL RESIDENTIAL USE AT 0.53 RMB, AGRICULTURAL USE AT 0.24 RMB AND INDUSTRIAL USE AT 0.71 RMB. THE LOCAL GOVERNMENTS ORDERED THAT THE PRICE OF ELECTRICITY MAY IN NO CASE EXCEED 1 RMB PER KILOWATT-HOUR. [COMMENT: CAMPAIGNS TO STOP PEOPLE FROM STEALING ELECTRICITY AND TO ELIMINATE SPECIAL LOW PRICES FOR "FRIENDS OF THE ELECTRIC COMPANY" [QINGDIAN] HAVE BEEN COMMON IN RURAL CHINA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL YEARS. ONE CHINESE SCHOLAR WHO HAS DONE FIELD WORK ON ENERGY ECONOMICS SAYS THAT DOOR-TO-DOOR SURVEYS ARE THE ONLY WAY TO DETERMINE WHAT PEOPLE ARE REALLY PAYING FOR ELECTRICITY. ELECTRIC COMPANY OFFICIAL

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INFORMATION IS OFTEN INACCURATE, SAID THE SCHOLAR. END NOTE]

FUJIAN TRADITIONAL MUSIC CONCERTS IN THE PARK

6. BY THE PARK IN QUANZHOU CITY CENTER, AMATEUR MUSICAL TROUPES PLAY TRADITIONAL FUJIAN (MINNAN INYUE -- MININ) MUSIC TO LARGE CROWDS. THE CHINESE DIALECT AND THE MUSICAL STYLE, WHICH SCHOLARS SAY IS DESCENDED FROM THE COURT STYLE OF THE SONG DYNASTY OF ONE THOUSAND YEARS AGO, ARE THE SAME AS IN TAIWAN JUST 100 MILES AWAY. ONE MUSICAL TROUPE PLAYED UNDER A BANNER DONATED BY CHEN SHUIBIAN ON HIS 1989 VISIT TO QUANZHOU FIVE YEARS BEFORE CHEN BECAME THE MAYOR OF TAIPEI. THE LANGUAGE, THE MUSIC, THE EVER-PRESENT TEA SHOPS AND PERHAPS EVEN THE ORDERLINESS OF THE CITY COMPARED WITH BEIJING AND SOME OTHER CITIES IN NORTHERN CHINA GAVE ESTOFF THE IMPRESSION THAT QUANZHOU IS IN A REGION WITH A QUITE DISTINCT CULTURE OF ITS OWN. ONE QUANZHOU MAN TOLD ESTOFF, "YOU SEE OUR MUSIC HAS A MUCH MORE REFINED STYLE THAN THE CLASSICAL CHINESE MUSIC IN THE BEIJING STYLE".

CORRUPTION AND CORRUPTION FIGHTING IN FAMILY PLANNING

7. ONE QUANZHOU RESIDENT TOLD ESTOFF THAT CORRUPTION IS A SERIOUS PROBLEM IN QUANZHOU AS IN MANY OTHER CHINESE CITIES. ESTOFF WAS TOLD THAT NOT JUST STRICT FAMILY PLANNING RULES BUT THEIR UNEVEN APPLICATION, AS WELL, CAUSES RESENTMENT IN MANY RURAL DISTRICTS OUTSIDE OF UNCLAS SECTION 03 OF 09 BEIJING 000475

WHITE HOUSE FOR OSTP/DBEHRING AND OVP
DEPT FOR EAP/CM AND PRM/POP/MARGARET POLLACK
DEPT PASS USAID/POPULATION/BARBARA CRANE
USDOC PASS CENSUS
USDA FAS FOR CMP, ARS, AND ERS
STATE PASS USTR FOR CASSIDY AND POPOVICH

E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: SENV, SOCI, ECON, EAGR, PGOV, NTDB, UNFPA, CH SUBJECT: QUANZHOU, FUJIAN -- A TRAVELER'S TALE

QUANZHOU. THE RICH AND WELL-CONNECTED ARE ABLE TO EVADE RULES AND HAVE AN ADDITIONAL CHILD BY JUST PAYING A FINE. THE SPREAD OF CORRUPTION IS THE GREATEST THREAT TO SOCIETY, SAID THE RESIDENT. EVEN OFFICIAL POSITIONS ARE BOUGHT AND SOLD SOMETIMES, HE SAID. A FAMILY PLANNING NOTICE POSTED ON A QUANZHOU STREET TRANSLATED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT DETAILS LOCAL POLICY ON MARRIAGE AGE, PERMISSION TO HAVE A CHILD, AND RULES AGAINST SEX-SELECTIVE ABORTION.

8. ANOTHER QUANZHOU RESIDENT TOLD ESTOFF THAT NEXT YEAR, WHEN HIS SON REACHES AGE TWELVE, HE WILL FINALLY HAVE PAID OFF THE FAMILY PLANNING FINE IN FULL. QUANZHOU COUPLES WHO HAVE AN ADDITIONAL CHILD IN VIOLATION OF THE

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RULES PAY A FINE OF BETWEEN TWO AND THREE TIMES THE COUPLE'S COMBINED ANNUAL INCOME.

A CAMPAIGN AGAINST SEX-SELECTIVE ABORTIONS

9. THE OCTOBER 3 WANBAO REPORTS ON A CAMPAIGN BY THE LOCAL FAMILY PLANNING AUTHORITIES TO STOP SEX-SELECTIVE ABORTION USING ULTRASOUND IN NANAN CITY. THE CAMPAIGN INCLUDED EDUCATION OF HEALTH PROFESSIONALS AND A PUBLIC EDUCATION USING RADIO, TELEVISION AND POSTED NOTICES. NEW PROCEDURES WERE IMPLEMENTED. ULTRASOUND B PROCEDURES MUST BE CONDUCTED BY TWO OR MORE PEOPLE. PEOPLE WHO CONDUCT ULTRASOUND EXAMINATIONS MUST SIGN AN AGREEMENT ACKNOWLEDGING THAT THEY WILL BE FIRED AND PROSECUTED IF ILLEGAL FETAL SEX DETERMINATION IS DISCOVERED. A WOMAN WHO HAD ILLEGAL ABORTIONS ON THE BASIS OF A SEX DETERMINATION LOSE THEIR FAMILY PLANNING CERTIFICATE (PERMISSION TO HAVE A CHILD) AND MUST PAY A LARGE FINE.

COMMENT: SEX SELECTIVE ABORTION AND SEX RATIO SKEWING

10. SKEWED SEX RATIOS, NOTES CHINESE DEMOGRAPHER MA YINGTONG [STC: 7456 3467 6639] IN THE SEPTEMBER 1998 ISSUE OF POPULATION AND ECONOMICS [RENKOU YU JINGJI] APPEARED FIRST IN THE CITIES AND DEVELOPED AREA WHERE PEOPLE HAD ACCESS TO ULTRASOUND MACHINES. ONLY AFTER THE MACHINES HAD SPREAD TO RURAL CHINA DID RURAL CHINESE SEX RATIOS BCOME HIGHER THAN IN THE MORE DEVELOPED AREAS. FETAL SEX DETERMINATION FOR THE PURPOSE OF SEX-SELECTE ABORTION HAS BEEN BANNED MANY TIMES IN CHINA SNCE THE 1980S. MA ESTIMATES THAT IN 1989, WHEN TE SEX RATIO AT BIRTH WAS 113, IF A NORMAL SEX RAIO IS 107:100 (THIS MA CONSIDERS TO BE THE HIGH END OF THENORMAL RANGE), THEN "AT LEAST 14.28 PERENT OF ALL MOTHERS HAD THE SEX OF THEIR FETUS DEERMINED AND SO 6.9 PERCENT OF THE FEMALE FETUSES WERE ABORTED". IF MA'S ANALYSIS IS CORRECT, THE OMINALLY ILLEGAL PRACTICE OF SEX SELECTIVE ABORTION IS VERY WIDESPREAD. IF, AS SOME OTHER REPUTABLE HINESE DEMOGRAPHERS ARGUE, SEX SELECTIVE ABORTION CAUSES ONLY HALF THE SEX SKEWING, THEN MA'S ESTIMATES WOULD BE HALVED BUT STILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANT. SEX SELECTIVE ABORTION HAS BEEN BANNED BY THE CHINESE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT AND BY LOCAL GOVERNMENTS MANY TIMES, YET LIKE MANY OTHER GOVERNMENT ORDERS, THE BANS ARE OFTEN QUICKLY FORGOTTEN OR IGNORED.

A PARTY ORDER AND CAMPAIGN AGAINST THE FAKING OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS

11. A FRONT PAGE ARTICLE IN THE OCTOBER 7 QUANZHOU WANBAO CALLED ON PEOPLE TO CALL A HOTLINE CREATED BY THE QUANZHOU CITY GOVERNMENT TO FIGHT THE FALSIFICATION OF STATISTICS. THE HOTLINE IS PART OF QUANZHOU CITY'S EFFORT TO IMPLEMENT THE RECENT ORDER "NOTICE OF THE COMMUNIST PARTY CENTRAL COMMITTEE OFFICE AND THE STATE COUNCIL

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UNCLAS SECTION 04 OF 09 BEIJING 000475

WHITE HOUSE FOR OSTP/DBEHRING AND OVP

DEPT FOR EAP/CM AND PRM/POP/MARGARET POLLACK

DEPT PASS USAID/POPULATION/BARBARA CRANE

USDA FAS FOR CMP, ARS, AND ERS

STATE PASS USTR FOR CASSIDY AND POPOVICH

E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: SENV, SOCI, ECON, EAGR, PGOV, NTDB, UNFPA, CH SUBJECT: QUANZHOU, FUJIAN -- A TRAVELER'S TALE

OFFICE ON RESOLUTELY OPPOSING AND STOPPING THE FALSIFICATION OF STATISTICS". A DECEMBER 22 FRONT PAGE COMMENTARY IN THE FUJIAN CAPITAL CITY NEWSPAPER FUZHOU RIBAO EXPLAINED THE REASONS FOR THIS CAMPAIGN.

12. "A FUJIAN PROVINCE STATISTICAL REGULATIONS ENFORCEMENT GROUP THROUGH FORMAL INVESTIGATIONS AND UNDERCOVER WORK DISCOVERED THAT SOME UNITS KEEP TWO SETS OF BOOKS. SOME UNITS MAKE FALSE REPORTS ABOUT THEIR PRODUCTION AND INCOME. THEY MAKE EXAGGERATED REPORTS TO SUPERVISORY UNITS IN ORDER TO WIN AWARDS. TO THE TAX DEPARTMENTS THEY REPORT VERY LOW FIGURES SO AS TO EVADE TAXATION. SOME RURAL ORGANIZATIONS UNDERREPORT THE NUMBER OF BIRTHS ABOVE FAMILY PLANNING TARGETS AS WELL AS CRIME STATISTICS. THEY MAKE FALSE REPORTS SO AS TO ATTRACT BUSINESSES AND INVESTMENT. ALL THESE FALSIFICATIONS ARE THE WORK OF INDIVIDUALS OR SMALL GROUPS OF PEOPLE.

13. "THE FALSIFICATION OF STATISTICS IS SPREADING IN SOME REGIONS AND IN SOME DEPARTMENTS. THE BASIC REASON IS THAT THE LEADERS OF THESE REGIONS AND DEPARTMENTS WANT TO SHOW THEY HAVE "GLORIOUS ACHIEVEMENTS". IN THIS WAY THEY COUNT ON WINNING THE TRUST OF HIGHER LEVELS AND PROMOTIONS. THEY REPORT GOOD NEWS BUT NOT BAD NEWS. THEY PUFF UP ACHIEVEMENTS AND HIDE SHORTCOMINGS. THEY PLAY ALL KINDS OF GAMES WITH STATISTICS. ON THE OTHER HAND, MANY HIGHER-UPS JUST ACCEPT THE REPORTS AND READ THE STATISTICS. THEY NEVER GO OUT THEMSELVES TO TAKE A LOOK AND SO THEY ARE VERY EASILY FOOLED. IN SOME REGIONS AND DEPARTMENTS, THERE ARE LEADERS WHO INSIST THAT UNREALISTIC GOALS AND VERY DIFFICULT TASKS BE ACHIEVED AND APPLY PRESSURE AT EACH LEVEL. THE NATURAL RESULT IS TO FORCE UP ALL KINDS OF TRASH FROM BELOW.

14. "THE FALSE STATISTICS CRISIS IS VERY GRAVE. THE BAD STATISTICS PUT FALSE INFORMATION IN THE HANDS OF LEADERS AT EVERY LEVEL. THE RESULTS OF BAD INFORMATION IS VERY OFTEN BAD DECISIONS. THE BAD STATISTICS PROVIDE FALSE INFORMATION TO THE MARKET AND TO COMPANIES. THIS CAN VERY EASILY LEAD TO A BUBBLE ECONOMY. FALSE STATISTICS ARE A SERIOUS THREAT TO THE CHINESE NATION. FALSE STATISTICS DAMAGE THE WORK AND INTERESTS OF THE STATE AND OF PEOPLE IN EVERY AREA. THEY ALSO DAMAGE THE AUTHORITY AND CREDIBILITY OF THE GOVERNMENT", CONCLUDED THE FUZHOU RIBAO FRONT PAGE COMMENTARY.

Page 14

30 YEAR LAND CONTRACTS AWARDED IN RURAL QUANZHOU

15. FROM THE NOVEMBER 3, 1998 QUANZHOU WANBAO: "TAIPING VILLAGE IS THE TRIAL SITE FOR THE FOR YONGPING COUNTY VILLAGE COLLECTIVE LAND CONTRACT MANAGEMENT AUTHORITY CERTIFICATES AND THE FIRST VILLAGE IN QUANZHOU CITY TO BE SO DESIGNATED. THE CERTIFICATES HANDED OUT IN THIS CEREMONY INVOLVED 14 VILLAGE ORGANIZATIONS, 510 HOUSEHOLDS COMPRISING 2200 PEOPLE, AND CONTRACTS COMPRISING 296.314 MU [NEARLY 20 HECTARES]. THERE WAS A FESTIVE AIR AS THE CERTIFICATES WERE HANDED OUT IN THE VILLAGE COUNCIL MEETING ROOM. VILLAGER LI CHUBIN SAID HAPPILY AS HE RECEIVED HIS CERTIFICATE, "WHEN PLANTING TREES, BAMBOO, AND FRUIT WE NEED AT LEAST THREE - FIVE YEARS AND USUALLY TEN OR MORE YEARS BEFORE WE CAN GET A HARVEST. THE FARMERS ARE AFRAID THAT GOVERNMENT POLICY WILL CHANGE SO THEY DON'T INVEST. THIS MAKES THE SUSTAINABLE PRODUCTIVITY OF THE LAND DECLINE. BUT WITH THE CERTIFICATE IN MY HAND I WON'T HAVE THESE CONSTRAINTS AND CAN GO OUT A GET A LOT DONE." FOR THE PAST SEVERAL YEARS, QUANZHOU CITY HAS MADE STABILIZING AND IMPROVING THE CONTRACT RESPONSIBILITY SYSTEM A TOP PRIORITY. THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT WORK. SOON FUJIAN PROVINCE WILL GIVE ALL FARMERS VILLAGE COLLECTIVE LAND MANAGEMENT AUTHORIZATION CERTIFICATES.

UNCLAS SECTION 05 OF 09 BEIJING 000475

WHITE HOUSE FOR OSTP/DBEHRING AND OVP

DEPT FOR EAP/CM AND PRM/POP/MARGARET POLLACK

DEPT PASS USAID/POPULATION/BARBARA CRANE

USDOC PASS CENSUS

USDA FAS FOR CMP, ARS, AND ERS

STATE PASS USTR FOR CASSIDY AND POPOVICH

E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: SENV, SOCI, ECON, EAGR, PGOV, NTDB, UNFPA, CH SUBJECT: QUANZHOU, FUJIAN -- A TRAVELER'S TALE

COMMENT: CHINESE ACADEMICS SAY RESTORATION OF PRIVATE PROPERTY CAN HELP SOLVE AGRICULTURAL ILLS

16. EXTENDING THE TERM OF LAND CONTRACTS FROM FIFTEEN TO THIRTY YEARS BEGAN WHEN MANY LAND CONTRACTS GIVEN OUT IN THE EARLY 1980S CAME UP FOR RENEWAL IN THE MID 1990S. ACCORDING TO A LATE 1997 PRESS REPORT, THE 30-YEAR CONTRACTS HAD BEEN EXTENDED IN MANY BUT NOT ALL AREAS OF CHINA. GIVING THE FARMERS MORE DECISION MAKING POWER AND A LONGER TERM CONTRACT ARE SOME OF THE MOST IMPORTANT TRENDS IN CHINA TODAY. CHINESE LEADERS SAY THAT THEY WANT TO REDUCE INTERFERENCE BY LOCAL OFFICIALS IN THE INDEPENDENT DECISION-MAKING OF FARMERS. THIS POINT IS MADE EMPHATICALLY IN THE REPORT OF THE GUANGDONG CP PARTY CHAIRMAN LI CHANGCHUN [STC: 2621 7022 2504] TO THE GUANGDONG PROVINCE PARTY CONGRESS PRINTED ON PAGE ONE OF

Page 15

NANFANG RIBAO [GUANGZHOU] ON NOVEMBER 12, 1998. IN SOME AREAS, THE CONTRACT SYSTEM HAS HELPED ATTRACT FOREIGN INVESTORS IN CHINESE AGRICULTURE.

17. CHINESE LEADERS ALSO WANT FARMERS WHO, GIVEN THE PRC'S HISTORY OF RADICAL POLICY SWINGS, DOUBT THAT ANY POLICY WILL LAST FOR LONG, WILL BE ABSOLUTELY CONVINCED THAT THEY ARE SECURE IN THEIR LAND CONTRACTS. THEY SEE THESE MEASURES AS THE KEYS TO BOOSTING CHINA'S LOW AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY. BUT THERE ARE MANY OBSTACLES. ONE IS THE LACK OF A LAND REGISTRATION SYSTEM TO PROVE TITLE AND MAP OUT A LAND CLAIM. THE THIRTY YEAR CONTRACT TERM IS WRITTEN INTO THE NEW LAND MANAGEMENT LAW [TUDI GUANLIFA]. THE NEW LAW ALSO STRENGTHENS LEGAL PROTECTIONS FOR FARMERS BY REQUIRING HIGHER LEVEL REVIEW OF ANY CONVERSION OF AGRICULTURAL LAND TO A NON-AGRICULTURAL USE.

18. THE EXTENSION OF THE LAND CONTRACT TERM FROM 15 TO 30 YEARS PROVIDES SOME BUT NOT ALL OF THE INCENTIVES OF LAND OWNERSHIP. SINCE THE FIRST FIFTEEN YEAR CONTRACTS WERE EXTENDED TO THIRTY YEARS IN THE MID 1990S, THE PRC MASS MEDIA HAS REPORTED ON THE BENEFITS OF LONGER TERM CONTRACTS FOR BOOSTING LONG-TERM INVESTMENT IN AGRICULTURAL LAND. IN SOME AREAS WITH MARGINAL LAND, INHERITABLE CONTRACTS FOR AS LONG AS 80 YEARS HAVE BEEN GRANTED.

COLLECTIVE OWNERSHIP: A SACRED PRINCIPLE IS QUESTIONED

19. TWO CHINESE UNIVERSITY PROFESSORS WHO SPECIALIZE IN ENVIRONMENTAL AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT STUDIES HAVE TOLD ESTOFF THAT THAT THE REAL SOLUTION TO LOW INVESTMENT IN AND LOW PRODUCTIVITY IN AGRICULTURE IS TO GIVE THE FARMERS CLEAR OWNERSHIP OF LAND. THE PROFESSORS ALSO SAY THAT WHILE MANY CHINESE ACADEMICS BELIEVE THE RESTORATION OF PRIVATE PROPERTY IS NECESSARY, THEY CAN TALK ONLY AROUND THE EDGES OF THIS THESIS. CHINESE SCHOLARS ARE NOT ALLOWED TO PUBLISH ARTICLES OR PRESENT PAPERS IN CONFERENCES CALLING FOR THE RESTORATION OF THE PRIVATE OWNERSHIP OF LAND.

20. THE STANDARD CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY EXPLANATION OF WHY MARKET METHODS ARE BEING USED BY CHINA IS THAT CHINA IS USING WESTERN METHODS TO STRENGTHEN SOCIALISM RESEMBLES THE ZHONGTI XIYONG "CHINESE IN THE MAIN, BUT THE WESTERN FOR THE USEFUL" FORMULATION FAVORED BY NINETEENTH CENTURY CHINESE CONSERVATIVES. THE COLLECTIVE OWNERSHIP OF LAND IS A BEDROCK PRINCIPAL OF COMMUNISM AND SO MOST RESISTANT TO CHANGE. YET IN CHINESE PUBLICATIONS ON NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT AS WELL AS IN AGRICULTURE CAN BE SEEN A GROWING RECOGNITION THAT THE COLLECTIVE OWNERSHIP SYSTEM IS THE ROOT OF THE PROBLEM. THE CHINESE UNCLAS SECTION 06 OF 09 BEIJING 000475

WHITE HOUSE FOR OSTP/DBEHRING AND OVP DEPT FOR EAP/CM AND PRM/POP/MARGARET POLLACK

Page 16

DEPT PASS USAID/POPULATION/BARBARA CRANE

USDOC PASS CENSUS

USDA FAS FOR CMP, ARS, AND ERS

STATE PASS USTR FOR CASSIDY AND POPOVICH

E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: SENV, SOCI, ECON, EAGR, PGOV, NTDB, UNFPA, CH SUBJECT: QUANZHOU, FUJIAN -- A TRAVELER'S TALE

ACADEMY OF SCIENCES SUPPORTED STUDY "CHINESE RESOURCE TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY" [ZHONGGUO ZIYUAN TAISHI YU KAIFA FANGLUUE] BY HE XIYU ET AL, PUBLISHED BY HUBEI KEXUE JISHU CHUBANSHE] IN MAY 1997 IS ONE EXAMPLE.

IN THE LOCAL PRESS: CHINESE LAW NEEDS PRIVACY CONCEPT; FLYING SAUCERS VISIT QUANZHOU

--- CHINESE LAW NEEDS PRIVACY CONCEPT [QUANZHOU WANBAO, NOVEMBER 16, 1998] EVERYONE THINKS THAT THEY HAVE A SACRED RIGHT TO PRIVACY. BUT AN EXAMINATION OF CHINESE LAWS SHOWS THAT THERE IS NO MENTION OF A CITIZEN'S RIGHT TO PRIVACY. THIS IS A SERIOUS SHORTCOMING IN CHINA'S LEGAL SYSTEM. A WIDESPREAD PROBLEM TODAY IS IMPLEMENTING THE LAW ON LEGAL PROCEDURES. STRICT OBSERVANCE OF THIS LAW ON PROCEDURES IS AN IMPORTANT GUARANTEE OF THE FAIRNESS OF JUDICIAL PROCEEDINGS. SINCE CHINESE LAW DOES NOT HAVE THE CONCEPT OF A "RIGHT TO PRIVACY" LEGAL OFFICIALS CAN EASILY BECOME BIASED AS THEY WORK ON A CASE. THE PEOPLE HANDLING THE CASE MAY NOT RECOGNIZE PRIVATE AFFAIRS AS BEING PRIVATE. THIS MAKES IT HARDER TO PROTECT THE RIGHTS OF THE PERSON WHO ARE INVOLVED IN THE CASE. SEE "IS THERE A RIGHT TO PRIVACY" AT HTTP://WWW.USEMBASSY-CHINA.GOV/ENGLISH/SANDT/PRIVLAW.HTML FOR A FULL TRANSLATION OF THIS ARTICLE.

-- FLYING SAUCER REPORT [QUANZHOU WANBAO DECEMBER 17]: SEVERAL RESIDENTS OF NAN'AN, INCLUDING A JOURNALIST, SAW AN OVAL SHAPED WHITE, SHINY UFO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SKY AT 11 PM ON THE NIGHT OF DECEMBER 16. THE OBJECT DARKENED AS IT MOVED TO THE LEFT AND BRIGHTENED AS IT MOVED TO THE RIGHT. THE OBJECT STAYED IN SIGHT FOR TWO HOURS.

[COMMENT: ACCORDING TO THE XIAMEN NEWSPAPERS, ANOTHER UFO VISITED THE XIAMEN AREA FURTHER SOUTH IN LATE NOVEMBER. UFOS ARE AS POPULAR IN CHINA AS THEY ARE IN THE UNITED STATES. X-FILES VIDEO DISCS AND STORIES ABOUT THE SUPPOSED ALIEN LANDING AT ROSWELL, NEW MEXICO CAN BE FOUND IN CHINESE STORES. THE LANZHOU MAGAZINE UFO RESEARCH [FEIDIE YANJIU] BOASTS THAT IT IS THE HIGHEST CIRCULATION UFO MAGAZINE IN THE WORLD. END COMMENT]

QUANZHOU ON THE INTERNET

-- QUANZHOU EVENING NEWS [QUANZHOU WANBAO], THE QUANZHOU COMMUNIST PARTY COMMITTEE NEWSPAPER IN CHINESE AT HTTP://CITIES.FZ.FJ.CN/FUJIAN(UNDERSTRIKE)W/NEWS/FZB/INDEX.HTML THIS SITE IS UPDATED DAILY.

Page 17

-- WINDOW ON QUANZHOU IN CHINESE AT
HTTP://CITIES.FZ.FJ.CN/FUJIAN(UNDERSTRIKE)W/CITY/QUANZHOU/C-INDEX.HTML

-- CHINA TELECOM QUANZHOU AT HTTP://WWW.QZ.FJ.CN/ HAS MANY QUANZHOU LINKS INCLUDING TOURIST INFORMATION, CHAT ROOMS, AND PERSONAL WEBPAGES.

-- QUANZHOU FORUM AT HTTP: //QZ.FREESERVERS.COM/ IN CHINESE. A BBS AND ONLINE DISCUSSION FORUM LINKED TO AN ONLINE FORUM WEBSITE OF BESEEN.COM OF TEXAS.
SAMPLES FROM THE QUANZHOU ONLINE FORUM: "THE DEVELOPMENT OF QUANZHOU IS STILL BEING HELD BACK FOR MANY YEARS BECAUSE OF TENSION IN THE TAIWAN STRAITS. WHAT A BIG LIE! HOW LONG CAN WE STAND FOR THAT OLD EXCUSE!", "THE PREVIOUS MAYOR OF QUANZHOU WAS NOT ONLY A PIG BUT ALL HE CARED ABOUT WAS MONEY", AND "THE PEOPLE OF QUANZHOU HAVE SUFFERED FOR MANY YEARS FROM THE ABYSMAL QUALITY OF CITY PLANNING..."

-- THE QUANZHOU CHAT ROOM IN CHINESE AT
HTTP://WWW.QZ.FJ.CN/CHAT30/
UNCLAS SECTION 07 OF 09 BEIJING 000475

WHITE HOUSE FOR OSTP/DBEHRING AND OVP
DEPT FOR EAP/CM AND PRM/POP/MARGARET POLLACK
DEPT PASS USAID/POPULATION/BARBARA CRANE
USDOC PASS CENSUS
USDA FAS FOR CMP, ARS, AND ERS
STATE PASS USTR FOR CASSIDY AND POPOVICH
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: SENV, SOCI, ECON, EAGR, PGOV, NTDB, UNFPA, CH
SUBJECT: QUANZHOU, FUJIAN -- A TRAVELER'S TALE

-- WINDOW ON FUJIAN PROVINCE IN ENGLISH AT HTTP://CITIES.FZ.FJ.CN/FUJIAN(UNDERSTRIKE)W/EINDEX.HTML AND IN CHINESE AT HTTP://CITIES.FZ.FJ.CN/

-- FUJIAN WINDOW IN CHINESE AT HTTP://CHINA-
WINDOW.COM/FUJIAN_W/ FUJIAN WINDOW LINKS TO MANY FUJIAN
NEWSPAPER AND EVEN TO REAL AUDIO FILES OF FUJIAN
PROVINCIAL RADIO BROADCASTS IN MANDARIN CHINESE AND IN
THE MINNAN (TAIWANESE) DIALECT OF CHINESE. FOURTEEN
NEWSPAPERS AS WELL AS REAL AUDIO INTERNET BROADCASTS FROM
THREE RADIO STATIONS AND ONE TELEVISION STATION ARE
LISTED ON THIS SITE. FUJIAN WINDOW ENGLISH VERSION AT
HTTP://CHINA-WINDOW.COM/FUJIAN_W/EINDEX.HTML INCLUDES
INFORMATION FOR INVESTORS.

-- FUJIAN PROVINCE ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION BUREAU IN CHINESE AT HTTP://FJEPB.FJ.CN.NET
-- YAHOO! CHINESE AT
HTTP://GBCHINESE.YAHOO.COM/REGIONAL/COUNTRIES/CHINA/PROVINCES REGIONS AND MUNICIPALITIES/FUJIAN/NEWS AND MEDIA/

Page 18

A CHINESE-LANGUAGE GUIDE TO THE FUJIAN PROVINCE MASS MEDIA.

APPENDIX: QUANZHOU REGION FAMILY PLANNING REGULATIONS

THE REGULATIONS BELOW ARE TRANSLATED FROM A NOTICE POSTED ON THE SIDE OF A BUILDING OFF A BUSY STREET IN THE MIDDLE OF QUANZHOU, FUJIAN PROVINCE. A NEARBY SHOPKEEPER SAID THAT THE RULES WERE POSTED ABOUT THREE YEARS AGO BY THE LI DISTRICT AUTHORITIES. THIS DISTRICT IN 1997 WAS BROKEN UP INTO SEVERAL SMALLER DISTRICTS ENCOMPASSING QUANZHOU CITY AND ITS SURROUNDING AREAS.

TRANSLATION BEGINS

FAMILY PLANNING POLICIES, LAWS AND REGULATIONS

THE OVERALL PLANNING POLICY OF CHINA IS TO: CONTROL THE SIZE OF THE POPULATION, IMPROVE THE QUALITY OF THE POPULATION, BRING POPULATION GROWTH TO A LEVEL APPROPRIATE TO THE GROWTH OF SOCIETY AND THE ECONOMY AND INTO HARMONY WITH RESOURCE USE, THE ECOLOGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT.

FERTILITY POLICY:

FERTILITY POLICY ENCOURAGES LATE MARRIAGE, FORBIDS BIRTHS OUTSIDE OF FAMILY PLANNING, PROMOTES HAVING CHILDREN LATE, AND FORBIDS EARLY MARRIAGE AND HAVING CHILDREN EARLY. FERTILITY POLICY ALSO FORBIDS THE ILLEGAL GIVING UP FOR ADOPTION AND ADOPTION OF CHILDREN.

IF BOTH HUSBAND AND WIFE ARE FARMERS: A MAN SHOULD NOT MARRY BEFORE HE IS 22 FULL YEARS OF AGE AND A WOMAN 20 FULL YEARS OF AGE. [TRANSLATOR'S NOTE: ZHOU SUI - AGE SINCE BIRTH AS OPPOSED TO THE TRADITIONAL CHINESE RECKONING WHICH MAKES A CHILD ONE YEAR OF AGE AT BIRTH AND ANOTHER YEAR OLDER AT THE NEXT SPRING FESTIVAL. END NOTE] AT THE TIME OF THE BIRTH OF THEIR FIRST CHILD, THE MAN SHOULD BE NO YOUNGER THAN 22 YEARS, 10 MONTHS AND THE WOMAN 20 YEARS, 10 MONTHS. IF THE FIRST CHILD IS A BOY, ADDITIONAL BIRTHS ARE NOT PERMITTED (EXCEPT IN THOSE CASES IN WHICH FORMAL PERMISSION HAS BEEN GRANTED IN ACCORDANCE WITH FAMILY PLANNING REGULATIONS). IF THE FIRST CHILD IS A GIRL, THE COUPLE MAY BE GRANTED PERMISSION UPON APPLICATION TO HAVE ANOTHER CHILD BUT THERE MUST BE A SPACING OF AT LEAST FOUR FULL YEARS BETWEEN THE BIRTHS OF THE FIRST AND SECOND CHILDREN.

UNCLAS SECTION 08 OF 09 BEIJING 000475

WHITE HOUSE FOR OSTP/DBEHRING AND OVP

DEPT FOR EAP/CM AND PRM/POP/MARGARET POLLACK

DEPT PASS USAID/POPULATION/BARBARA CRANE

USDOC PASS CENSUS

USDA FAS FOR CMP, ARS, AND ERS

STATE PASS USTR FOR CASSIDY AND POPOVICH

Page 19

E.O. 12958: N/A

E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: SENV, SOCI, ECON, EAGR, PGOV, NTDB, UNFPA, CH SUBJECT: QUANZHOU, FUJIAN -- A TRAVELER'S TALE

IF BOTH THE HUSBAND AND THE WIFE ARE CADRES OR PROFESSIONAL WORKERS OR LIVE IN A CITY OR TOWNSHIP, THEN THE LATE MARRIAGE, LATE BIRTH RULE APPLIES TO THEM. A COUPLE MAY HAVE ONLY ONE CHILD (EXCEPT IN THOSE CASES IN WHICH FORMAL PERMISSION HAS BEEN GRANTED IN ACCORDANCE WITH FAMILY PLANNING REGULATIONS). THE LATE MARRIAGE REGULATION STIPULATES A MINIMUM AGE AT THE TIME OF MARRIAGE OF 25 FULL YEARS FOR MEN AND 23 FULL YEARS FOR WOMEN. A LATE BIRTH IS A BIRTH OF A FIRST CHILD TO A MARRIED WOMAN AT AGE 24 OR OLDER OR TO A WOMAN WHO GETS MARRIED AND HAS A CHILD AFTER THE LATE BIRTH AGE.

IN THE CASE OF A FARMER COUPLE WHO HAVE A BOY, A COUPLE IN WHICH THE HUSBAND OR WIFE IS A PROFESSIONAL CADRE OR LIVE IN A CITY OR TOWNSHIP, THE COUPLE SHALL APPLY FOR AN ONLY ONE CHILD CERTIFICATE WITHIN THREE MONTHS OF THE BIRTH OF THEIR CHILD.

COUPLES WHO WISH TO HAVE A CHILD AND MEET THESE CONDITIONS MUST APPLY FOR A "FAMILY PLANNING CERTIFICATE". ANY PREGNANCY AND BIRTH TO A COUPLE WHICH DOES NOT POSSESS A "FAMILY PLANNING CERTIFICATE" IS CONSIDERED TO BE A PREGNANCY AND BIRTH NOT IN ACCORD WITH FAMILY PLANNING. IF A WOMAN HOLDING SUCH A CERTIFICATE HAS NOT BECOME PREGNANT DURING THE PERIOD SPECIFIED BY THE "FAMILY PLANNING CERTIFICATE" SHE MUST MAKE ANOTHER APPLICATION TO THE ORGAN WHICH ISSUED THE ORIGINAL CERTIFICATE.

II. BIRTH CONTROL TECHNIQUES POLICY

A WOMAN WHO MARRIES EARLY MUST USE AN INTRAUTERINE LOOP OR AN IMPLANT [NOTE: SIMILAR TO NORPLANT. END NOTE] UNTIL ARRANGEMENTS FOR BIRTH AT THE LATE BIRTH AGE CAN BE MADE. WITHIN THREE MONTHS AFTER THE BIRTH OF THE FIRST CHILD, A COUPLE MUST ADOPT AN EFFECTIVE FAMILY PLANNING MEASURE. WITHIN THREE MONTHS OF THE BIRTH OF A SECOND CHILD, EITHER THE HUSBAND OR THE WIFE MUST BE STERILIZED. STERILIZATION IN ORDER TO HAVE A CHILD OUTSIDE THE FAMILY PLANNING REGULATIONS IS FORBIDDEN. [TRANSLATOR'S NOTE: ACCORDING TO A CHINESE PHYSICIAN WHO DID FAMILY PLANNING WORK IN A FACTORY, "JIN ZHI BAOTAI JIEZHA" FORBIDS THE PRACTICE OF SOME RURAL WOMEN WHO, WHEN PREGNANT WITH AN ADDITIONAL CHILD, HAVE A TUBAL LIGATION IN ORDER TO OBTAIN A FAMILY PLANNING CERTIFICATE. THUS THEY ESCAPE FAMILY PLANNING CHECKS AND THEY CAN GIVE BIRTH TO THEIR CHILD. END NOTE] SUPPLEMENTARY MEASURES SHOULD BE TAKEN TO ADDRESS A PREGNANCY ARISING OUTSIDE FAMILY PLANNING.

FOR WOMEN USING INTRAUTERINE LOOPS, THE LOOP SHOULD BE INSPECTED ONCE EVERY SEASON. COUPLES WHO HAVE JUST MARRIED AND DO NOT YET HAVE A FAMILY PLANNING CERTIFICATE, COUPLES WHO HAVE A CERTIFICATE BUT HAVE NOT

Page 20

HAD A CHILD, OR AFTER THE BIRTH OF A CHILD HAVE NOT YET IMPLEMENTED BIRTH CONTROL MEASURES, A MAN WITHIN ONE YEAR OF STERILIZATION OR A WOMAN WITHIN SIX MONTHS OF STERILIZATION, SHALL USE BIRTH CONTROL DRUGS OR APPARATUS. IN SUCH CASES THE WOMAN SHALL BE CHECKED FOR PREGNANCY EACH SEASON AND WOMAN USING A CONTRACEPTIVE IMPLANT SHALL BE EXAMINED ONCE EVERY HALF YEAR. SEX-SELECTIVE ABORTION IS FORBIDDEN AND DOING A ABORTION ON ONE'S OWN IS FORBIDDEN.

III. LEGAL RESPONSIBILITY

COUPLES WHO HAVE A CHILD OUTSIDE THE SCOPE OF THE FAMILY PLANNING REGULATIONS ARE ASSESSED A "FEE FOR AN UNPLANNED BIRTH" [JIHUA SHENGYU WAI SHENGYU FEI].

1. COUPLES WHO HAVE THEIR FIRST CHILD TOO EARLY OR VIOLATE THE RULE FOR SPACING THE FIRST AND THE SECOND CHILD ARE ASSESSED A FEE BETWEEN SIXTY AND ONE HUNDRED UNCLAS SECTION 09 OF 09 BEIJING 000475

WHITE HOUSE FOR OSTP/DBEHRING AND OVP

DEPT FOR EAP/CM AND PRM/POP/MARGARET POLLACK

DEPT PASS USAID/POPULATION/BARBARA CRANE

USDOC PASS CENSUS

USDA FAS FOR CMP, ARS, AND ERS

STATE PASS USTR FOR CASSIDY AND POPOVICH

TAGS: SENV, SOCI, ECON, EAGR, PGOV, NTDB, UNFPA, CH SUBJECT: QUANZHOU, FUJIAN -- A TRAVELER'S TALE

PERCENT THE COMBINED ANNUAL INCOME OF THE COUPLE.

2. COUPLES WHO HAVE MORE THAN ONE CHILD ARE ASSESSED BETWEEN TWO AND THREE TIMES THEIR COMBINED ANNUAL INCOME.

3. COUPLES WHICH HAVE TWO CHILDREN BEYOND WHAT THEY ARE ALLOWED UNDER FAMILY PLANNING REGULATIONS ARE ASSESSED BETWEEN FOUR AND SIX TIMES THEIR ANNUAL INCOME. HEAVIER ASSESSMENTS ARE LEVIED ON COUPLES WHO HAVE THREE OR MORE CHILDREN BEYOND WHAT IS PERMITTED UNDER FAMILY PLANNING REGULATIONS.

AN UNAUTHORIZED ADOPTIONS OF A CHILD IS HANDLED AS AN ADDITIONAL OUTSIDE OF FAMILY PLANNING BIRTH UNDER THE FAMILY PLANNING REGULATIONS.

[TRANSLATOR'S NOTE: INFORMAL ADOPTIONS BASED ON AGREEMENTS BETWEEN TWO FAMILIES THAT MIGHT BE RECOGNIZED OFFICIALLY ONLY MUCH LATER WHEN A CHANGE IS MADE IN A FAMILY REGISTER WHEN A NEED AROSE ARE TRADITIONAL IN SOUTHERN CHINA. HERE THE INTENT OF THE REGULATION IS TO ENSURE THAT ADOPTION IS NOT USED TO EVADE THE LIMITATION OF CHILDREN TO ONE OR TWO UNDER FAMILY PLANNING RULES. END NOTE]

Page 21

ADDITIONAL PENALTIES ARE IMPOSED UPON EMPLOYEES OF GOVERNMENT OR PARTY ORGANIZATIONS OR COMPANIES WHO VIOLATE THE FAMILY PLANNING REGULATIONS AND SANCTIONS UNDER GOVERNMENT OR PARTY DISCIPLINARY RULES.

LI [STC: 7642] REGION PEOPLES GOVERNMENT (PROPAGANDA DEPARTMENT)

TRANSLATION ENDS

SECT: SECTION: 01 OF 09

^SECT>SECTION: 02 OF 09

^SECT>SECTION: 03 OF 09

^SECT>SECTION: 04 OF 09

^SECT>SECTION: 05 OF 09

^SECT>SECTION: 06 OF 09

^SECT>SECTION: 07 OF 09

^SECT>SECTION: 08 OF 09

^SECT>SECTION: 09 OF 09

SSN: 0475

<^SSN>0475

<^SSN>0475

<^SSN>0475

<^SSN>0475

<^SSN>0475

<^SSN>0475

<^SSN>0475

<^SSN>0475

<^SSN>0475

TOR: 990114052147 M3644925

<^TOR>990114052308 M3644927

<^TOR>990114052346 M3644930

<^TOR>990114052437 M3644931

<^TOR>990114052520 M3644932

<^TOR>990114052603 M3644933

<^TOR>990114052618 M3644934

<^TOR>990114052708 M3644935

<^TOR>990114052751 M3644936

DIST:

SIT: ARVIZU BABBITT BADER BUSBY GUARNIERI HAMMONDS HOLTZAPPLE LEE

LIEBERTHAL NAPLAN OSIUS PRITCHARD SCHWARTZ VACCARO WIPPMAN

SIT: NSC

Page 22

RR. Document will be reviewed upon request.

Page 23

Cable

PREC: PRIORITY

CLASS: UNCLASSIFIED

LINE1: PATUZYUW RUCWAAA2492 0610250-UUUU--RHEHOND.

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Page 24

INFO:

SUBJ: Lima TV Summary 020100: LIM 99-036

TEXT:

UNCLAS 6Z

WARNING: FTS_DOC_ID: FTS19990301001886

WARNING: A VIDEOTAPE OF THE PROGRAM SUMMARIZED BELOW CAN BE ORDERED FROM FBIS BY CALLING ___ (b)(3) BETWEEN 0800 AND 1600 EST OR BY FAXING AN ORDER TO ___ (b)(3) PLEASE SUPPLY THE TAPE NUMBER (FOUND ON SUBJECT LINE), YOUR NAME, PHONE NUMBER, AND OFFICE ADDRESS. TAPES NOT ORDERED WITHIN 30 DAYS WILL BE ERASED.

WARNING: TOPIC: POLITICAL, ECONOMIC, DOMESTIC, INTERNATIONAL

SERIAL: (b)(3)D203024299

PASS: ATTN BBC LATAM ATTN BBC VIDEO ATTN BBC PART5

COPY TO (b)(3)

COUNTRY: PERU

SUBJ: Lima TV Summary 020100: LIM 99-036

SOURCE: Lima America Television Network in Spanish 0100 GMT 2 Mar 99

TEXT:

["America Newscast;" fair video, audio reception: figures in brackets indicate time in minutes elapsed since start of program]

[FBIS Log]

1. [00] Announcer-read report: Headlines.

2. [02] Video report: President Fujimori today opened a meeting of American hemisphere justice ministers, attorneys general. In the afternoon Fujimori received US Attorney General Janet Reno at the Government Palace. Video shows footage of meeting, Gaviria, Fujimori, US ambassador Jett making statements, Attorney General Reno. (Texting)

3. [05] Video report: Student registration process began in state-owned schools. Education minister reiterated parents should not pay for tuition. Video shows parents forming line, school blackboard, facilities, parents, students making statements.

4. [07] Video report: This morning nine people were killed when a bus went off a cliff on a road in Huancavelica. Video shows crashed bus, rescue workers, bodies.

5. [09] Announcer-read report: News preview.

6. [11] Video report: In last few years Peru has reduced the number of hectares planted with coca leaf. Peasants in Apurimac valley region are growing coffee and cocoa bean. Video shows aerial view of Apurimac valley, river, farmer Leoncio Chavez making statements, helicopter, soldiers, project coordinator

Page 25

making statements, cocoa bean plantation, coffee plant, pineapple plantation, roads, AID representative Marion Ford making statements.

7. [16] Announcer-read report: Coca leaf crop substitution plan conference to be held in Washington. Peruvian companies to present advantages of law to promote private investment in Amazon region.

8. [17] Video report: on four-year-old boy who was born without arms. Video shows boy eating with feet, mother making statements, boy playing piano, drawing with feet, father making statements, boy playing soccer with brothers.

9. [19] Video report: Residents in La Encantada neighborhood reported a private school began construction of parking zone in environmental protected area. Video shows parking lot under construction, resident making statements, palm trees, police officer, school principal making statements.

10. [21] Video report: Body of pregnant 25-year-old woman found in Panamericana Sur Highway. Video shows body of woman, police officers, police car.

11. [22] Announcer-read report: News preview.

12. [26] Video report: Numerous UFOs have been recently sighted in Peru. Video shows city skyline at night, UFO expert Sixto Paz making statements, UFO pictures, drawings.

13. [29] Video report: One hundred vehicles blocked by landslide on road connecting Ayacucho and the jungle. Video shows swollen river, road, onlookers, people crossing pedestrian bridge over river. No drinking water reported in Tingo Maria due to recent rains. Video shows cistern trucks, people getting water.

14. [31] Video report: Weather report.

15. [33] Video report: International news.

16. [35] Announcer-read report: News preview.

17. [37] Video report: Sports.

18. [46] Announcer-read report: News preview.

19. [48] Video report: Biographer Carlos Vidal said he will apologize to entertainer Gisela Valcarcel if public rejects his book. Video shows Vidal making statements.

20. [50] Video report: on local farmer keeping more than 600 birds at his farm. Video shows hen coop, birds, farmer making statements.

21. [52] Announcer-read report: Close of newscast.

THIS REPORT MAY CONTAIN COPYRIGHTED MATERIAL. COPYRIGHT AND DISSEMINATION IS PROHIBITED WITHOUT PERMISSION OF THE COPYRIGHT

Page 26

OWNERS, (endall)

SECT: SECTION: 01 OF 01

SSN: 2492

TOR: 990301214838 M3720355

DIST: SIT: NSC

Page 27

Page 28

Cable

PREC: PRIORITY

CLASS: UNCLASSIFIED

LINE1: PATUZYUW RUCWAAA1713 0890217-UUUU--RHEHOND.

LINE2: ZNR UUUUU

LINE3: P 300217Z MAR 99

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INFO:

Page 29

SUBJ: Lima TV Summary 300100: LIM 99-056

TEXT: UNCLAS 62

WARNING: FTS_DOC_ID: FTS19990329002012

WARNING: A VIDEOTAPE OF THE PROGRAM SUMMARIZED BELOW CAN BE ORDERED FROM FBIS BY CALLING (b)(3) BETWEEN 0800 AND 1600 EST OR BY FAXING AN ORDER TO (b)(3) PLEASE SUPPLY THE TAPE NUMBER (FOUND ON SUBJECT LINE), YOUR NAME, PHONE NUMBER, AND OFFICE ADDRESS. TAPES NOT ORDERED WITHIN 30 DAYS WILL BE ERASED.

WARNING: TOPIC: POLITICAL, ECONOMIC, DOMESTIC, INTERNATIONAL

SERIAL: (b)(3)003021299

PASS: $ \underline{\text{ATTN BBC LATAM ATTN BBC VIDEO ATTN BBC PART5}} $

COPY TO (b)(3)

COUNTRY: PERU

SUBJ: Lima TV Summary 300100: LIM 99-056

SOURCE: Lima America Television Network in Spanish 0100 GMT 30 Mar 99

TEXT:

["America Newscast;" fair video, good audio reception: figures in brackets indicate time in minutes elapsed since start of program]

[FBIS Log]

1. [00] Headlines.

2. [01] Video report on residents of 37 human settlements in Callao blocking the northern portion of the Pan-American Highway in the wee hours of today to demand that the government provides them basic services. Video shows angry demonstrators speaking and riot policemen trying to clear the road and firing tear gas.

3. [06] Video report on residents of 37 settlements in Callao facing a situation of abject poverty.

4. [08] International news -- The Argentine Government granted asylum to General Lino Oviedo, while the Brazilian Government granted asylum to former Paraguayan President Raul Cubas.

5. [09] Video report on President Alberto Fujimori saying during a meeting with Victor Joy Way, president of the Council of Ministers, that if corruption charges raised against Customs are true, the head of this institution will have to resign and face legal action. As for those people who have committed tax evasion, he noted that they will be able to dodge criminal charges if they pay their dues. Video shows Fujimori speaking.

6. [14] Special report on 100th anniversary of the arrival of the ship Sakuramaru, which brought the first Japanese immigrants to San Vicente de Canete, Peru, being commemorated. Video shows

Page 30

old Japanese immigrants speaking.

7. [19] Video report on commemorative Buddhist ceremony being held in San Vicente de Canete, where the first Japanese immigrants arrived.

8. [21] Report over video on mini van falling down a cliff in Huancayo, leaving six dead.

9. [22] Video report on residents of Chincheros, Cusco, being concerned over the discovery of a huge crater, which they claim was made by a UFO.

10. [26] Video report on Police arresting Jose Luis Mancilla, alias Paneton, an infamous Peruvian criminal, this morning.

11. [27] Video report on young man in Piura stabbing the 19-year-old woman he lived with and escaping with their three-year-old daughter after the murder.

12. [29] Weather report.

13. [34] Sports.

14. [44] Video report on traditional procession of the Lord of Tremors, which marks the beginning of Holy Week, taking place in Cusco.

15. [45] Further report on processions throughout the country to mark the beginning of Holy week.

16. [48] Video report on Miss Peru pageant.

THIS REPORT MAY CONTAIN COPYRIGHTED MATERIAL. COPYRIGHT AND DISSEMINATION IS PROHIBITED WITHOUT PERMISSION OF THE COPYRIGHT OWNERS.

(endall)

SECT: SECTION: 01 OF 01

SSN: 1713

TOR: 990329211810 M3770854

DIST: SIT: NSC

Page 31

Cable

PREC: ROUTINE

CLASS: UNCLASSIFIED

LINE1: RAAUZYUW RUEHDMA3515 1921046-UUUU--RHEHAAX.

LINE2: ZNR UUUUU ZZH

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RUEHRB/AMEMBASSY RABAT 0462

RUEHRH/AMEMBASSY RIYADH 3700

SUBJ: NGO'S IN SYRIA: BUILDING BLOCKS OF CIVIL SOCIETY?

TEXT:

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 DAMASCUS 003515

USIA

STATE FOR ARN/NEA-EMILLARD, INR
USIA FOR PAGNEW, NEA-DSREEBNY, LHALE, CHUNTER; I/GNEA-AWALDEN; E/NEA-MQUINN, JSEDLINS; E/VGN- AOLEARY,
ASHIFLETT
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL, SY
SUBJECT: NGO'S IN SYRIA: BUILDING BLOCKS OF CIVIL SOCIETY?

1. SUMMARY: SYRIA IS POLITICALLY AN AUTHORITARIAN SOCIETY WITH A ONE PARTY SYSTEM AND NO FORMAL INSTITUTIONS OF CIVIL SOCIETY. DESPITE THE OCTOPUS REACH OF GOVERNMENT ORGANIZATIONS (GO) IN EVERY SPHERE OF LIFE IN SYRIA, SOME NGO'S ARE POTENTIAL BUILDING BLOCKS OF CIVIL SOCIETY. THREE TYPES OF GROUPS EXIST:

(A) GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS (GO)

(B) INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS (IO)

(C) NON-GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS (NGO)

ALL OF THE 518 NGO'S IN SYRIA ARE REGISTERED WITH, AND MONITORED BY, THE MINISTRY OF SOCIAL AFFAIRS; THUS, NGO'S ARE IN REALITY QUASI-GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS. SOME NGO'S AND SOME PROFESSIONAL GROUPS HAVE MANAGED TO

Page 32

ESTABLISH -- DESPITE GOVERNMENT MONITORING -- INFORMAL NETWORKS OF TRUST TYPICAL OF CIVIL SOCIETY. LIKE-MINDED SYRIAN PROFESSIONALS, LINKED INFORMALLY, DISCUSS ISSUES SUCH AS HUMAN RIGHTS AND GRASSROOTS ACTION. OTHER INSTITUTIONS, SUCH AS SATELLITE TV (UNLICENSED DISHES CROWD DAMASCENE ROOFS) AND THE INTERNET (A FEW HUNDRED TEST SITES EXIST, AND THOUSANDS ARE ILLEGALLY CONNECTED TO INTERNET SERVICE PROVIDERS IN BEIRUT AND AMMAN), ARE ALSO CRITICAL BUILDING BLOCKS OF CIVIL SOCIETY. END SUMMARY.

2. WE REPORT SEPTEMBER ON POST CIVITAS PROJECTS. USIS DIALOGUES WITH NGO AND IO REPRESENTATIVES THROUGH TWO KINDS OF PROGRAMS: CLOSED SEMINARS AT THE PAO RESIDENCE, AND SEMINARS CO-SPONSORED BY USIS WITH IO'S (SUCH AS THE RED CRESCENT) AND NGO'S (SUCH AS THE DAMASCUS EMERGENCY SOCIETY). IN THESE CLOSED SEMINARS PARTICIPANTS HAVE DEBATED SUCH ISSUES AS THE ROLE OF VOLUNTEERISM IN SYRIAN SOCIETY, AND PROPOSED SUCH PROJECTS AS A UNIFIED DATABASE OF NGO ACTIVITIES AND MEMBERSHIP. IN PUBLIC LECTURES WHICH WE HAVE SPONSORED WITH OTHER ORGANIZATIONS, THE MESSAGE OF CIVIC SOCIETY AND OF DEMOCRACY IS IMPLICIT SYRIANS ARE ACCUSTOMED TO THE ABSENCE OF FRANK PUBLIC DIALOGUE. FOR EXAMPLE, AFTER A LECTURE ON KAWAKIBI'S TURN-OF-THE-CENTURY WRITINGS ON DEMOCRACY WHICH CHALLENGED THE OPPRESSIVE OTTOMAN REGIME, AN AUDIENCE MEMBER ACKNOWLEDGED THAT TALKING ABOUT THE 1910'S HAD MEANING FOR EVENTS OF THE 1990'S. DURING RECENT ACULSPEC PROGRAMS U.S. ARTISTS ENCOURAGED STUDENTS TO BE CREATIVE; STUDENTS TOLD US THIS WAS THEIR FIRST CHANCE TO TRULY EXPRESS THEMSELVES.

WHERE THERE ARE NO NGO'S

3. SYRIAN NGO'S EXIST AT THE SUFFERANCE OF THE OFFICIAL BA'TH PARTY AND OF THE GOVERNMENT. THE BA'TH PARTY DOMINATES POLITICS AND SOCIETY. IT CONTROLS THE PEOPLE'S ASSEMBLY, YOUTH MOVEMENTS, THE WOMEN'S UNION, PROFESSIONAL ASSOCIATIONS, SCHOOLS AND UNIVERSITIES. NO TOWN HOWEVER SMALL IS WITHOUT ITS ARAB CULTURAL CENTER, WHOSE MYRIAD CULTURAL ACTIVITIES SUPPORT SYRIAN BA'THISM ALL LOCAL POLITICAL AND CULTURAL OFFICIALS ARE FROM THE PARTY ELITE. (AT A RECENT CULTURAL FESTIVAL SPONSORED BY THE BA'TH YOUTH PARTY, THE PARTY OFFICIAL INTRODUCED THE PAO TO THE ARAB CULTURAL CENTER DIRECTOR, SAYING: "WE ARE ALL ONE; WHAT I DO IS WHAT HE DOES!")

4. BA'THIST PARTY ACTIVITIES ARE BURSTING WITH VOLUNTEERS SEEKING TO RISE IN PARTY CADRES OR JUST TO SURVIVE AND TO HOLD ON TO THEIR JOBS. SCHOOL TEACHERS DONATE SUMMER WEEKS TO COUNSEL IN YOUTH CAMPS FOR GRADE SCHOOL "AL-TALA'A" (VANGUARD) AND HIGH SCHOOL "SHIBIBIT ATH-THAWRA" (YOUTH OF THE REVOLUTION) MOVEMENTS. THE EGALITARIANISM OF BA'THIST SOCIALIST IDEOLOGY IS EVIDENT IN THE LONG ROWS OF TENTS, AND PARTY LEADERS EATING THE CAMP MENU FROM STEEL PLATES IN THE CAFETERIA. CLASSICAL ARABIC

Page 33

LACES BA'THIST FORMULAIC INTRODUCTIONS: "COMRADE ZAINAB MAHMOUD, MEMBER OF THE DEIR AZ-ZOR SECTION OF THE VANGUARD YOUTH PARTY." THIS MELANGE OF SOCIALISM, CLASSICAL ARABIC (THE LANGUAGE OF ARAB UNITY) AND SOCIAL VOLUNTEERISM IMPARTS TO FUTURE GENERATIONS A SENSE OF VOLUNTEERISM REMINISCENT OF SCOUT GROUPS IN THE WEST, YET SHAPED BY A RIGID SCHEME OF PARTY IDEOLOGY AND REWARDS.

UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 04 DAMASCUS 003515

USIA

STATE FOR ARN/NEA-EMILLARD, INR

USIA FOR PAGNEW, NEA-DSREEBNY, LHALE, CHUNTER; I/GNEA-AWALDEN; E/NEA-MQUINN, JSEDLINS; E/VGN- AOLEARY,

ASHIFLETT

E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: PREL, SY

SUBJECT: NGO'S IN SYRIA: BUILDING BLOCKS OF CIVIL SOCIETY?

5. THE WOMEN'S UNION IS THE ONLY OFFICIAL WOMEN'S GROUP IN SYRIA. WHILE FOUNDED TO FURTHER THE PARTY, THE UNION DOES AT TIMES ATTRACT NON-PARTY MEMBERS TO WOMEN'S ISSUES SEMINARS. A RECENT UNION CULTURAL WEEK INCLUDED LECTURES ON THE STATUS OF WOMEN IN ISLAM AND IN THE QURAN BOTH BY A CONSERVATIVE THEOLOGIAN AND BY A REFORMIST ISLAMIC THEORETICIAN. BOTH EVENTS WERE PACKED WITH A MIX OF PARTY FAITHFUL AND OF VEILED (SCARVED) WOMEN PROBABLY NOT IN THE PARTY. WOMEN'S UNION SEMINARS TO DRAFT THE POST-BEIJING PROPOSAL FOR SYRIA INCLUDED NON-PARTY LAWYERS AND TEACHERS WHO FOCUSED ON WOMEN'S AND CHILDREN'S RIGHTS AND ON THE NEED FOR CURRICULUM CHANGES.

6. SYRIAN LABOR SYNDICATES AND PROFESSIONAL ASSOCIATIONS ARE PRO FORMA AND RARELY ENHANCE PROFESSIONAL COOPERATION. EVEN THOUGH UNIONS HOLD ELECTIONS, OFFICIALS ARE DETERMINED BY PARTY STRUCTURE. AS ONE TRADE UNION BRANCH HEAD PUT IT, "THE ELECTIONS FOR UNION OFFICERS ARE 'DEMOCRACIYYA SHAKLIYYA,' DEMOCRACY IN FORM BUT NOT CONTENT." PROFESSIONALS AVOID STERILE BA'THIST ASSOCIATIONS SINCE THERE IS NO OPPORTUNITY IN THE RIGID PARTY STRUCTURE FOR TRUE COLLABORATION. CHANCES FOR PROFESSIONAL DIALOGUE ARE RARE. USIS SEMINARS FOR COMPUTER AND ENGLISH TEACHING PROFESSIONS DRAW ENTHUSIASTIC PARTICIPANTS WHO TELL US THE EVENTS PROVIDE THEIR FIRST CHANCE TO DISCUSS SHARED INTERESTS WITH PROFESSIONAL COLLEAGUES; THEY BUSILY EXCHANGE EXPERIENCES AND PHONE NUMBERS DURING SEMINAR BREAKS.

INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS AS A NICHE FOR COMMUNITY ACTION

Page 34

7. INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS (IO'S) SUCH AS THE INTERNATIONAL FAMILY PLANNING ASSOCIATION (IFPA) AND UNICEF, AND INTERNATIONAL DONORS SUCH AS THE GERMAN FOUNDATION, GTZ, OPERATE IN SYRIA BY PERMISSION OBTAINED FROM THE MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS (MFA) AND HAVE FREER REIGN THAN NGO'S, WHO ARE UNDER THE MINISTRY OF SOCIAL AFFAIRS (MSA) UMBRELLA. THE IFPA SPONSORS SOCIAL PROJECTS SUCH AS A SHELTER FOR FEMALE JUVENILES WHO ARE VICTIMS OF RAPE, A SHELTER FOR MALE JUVENILE DELINQUENTS AND YOUTH CENTERS IN MAJOR SYRIAN CITIES. YOUTH CENTER ACTIVITIES WERE CHALLENGED LAST YEAR, OSTENSIBLY BECAUSE OF OPPOSITION BY RELIGIOUS LEADERS TO SEXUALLY EXPLICIT LANGUAGE USED IN SEMINARS. THE CENTERS CURRENTLY SPONSOR CONSCIOUSNESS-RAISING PROGRAMS RUN BY VOLUNTEER LAWYERS AND SOCIAL WORKERS ON ISSUES SUCH AS INTER-GENERATIONAL CONFLICT AND AIDS. THE RED CRESCENT SPONSORS YOUTH GROUPS WHO TRAIN IN FIRST-AID AND SERVE AS A FIRST-AID CORPS AT PUBLIC EVENTS AND ORGANIZE FUND RAISING FAIRS FOR CHILDREN. THESE GROUPS ARE THE CLOSEST THING, BESIDES CHRISTIAN YOUTH GROUPS AND MARCHING BANDS, TO WESTERN TEENS AND SCOUTS. THE INTERNATIONAL BOY SCOUT MOVEMENT, SEEN AS A CHALLENGE TO BA'THIST YOUTH PARTIES, IS NOT ALLOWED IN SYRIA.

8. UNICEF COOPERATES WITH THE MINISTRY OF HEALTH ON RURAL FAMILY HEALTH CENTERS. UNICEF RECEIVES FUNDING AND SUPPORT FROM OTHER MINISTRIES, INCLUDING THE MINISTRY OF JUSTICE, WITH WHOM UNICEF RECENTLY CO-SPONSORED A SEMINAR ON JUVENILE RIGHTS. A UNICEF EMPLOYEE SITS ON THE MINISTRY OF EDUCATION CURRICULUM COMMITTEE AND HAS INTRODUCED COMPONENTS OF GLOBAL EDUCATION AND YOUTH RIGHTS TO THE SYRIAN SCHOOL CURRICULUM. CIVIC EDUCATION IN SYRIA MEANS PARTY IDEOLOGY. NONETHELESS, PROFESSIONALS CIRCUMVENT PARTY TURF BY APPLYING THE NEWEST PEDAGOGICAL APPROACHES. A RECENTLY-RETURNED CIVIC EDUCATION IV PARTICIPANT WHO SERVES ON THE UNIVERSITY FACULTY OF EDUCATION CURRICULUM COMMITTEE, WORKED IN THAT COMMITTEE TO TEACH PRINCIPLES OF CIVIC SOCIETY IN SUCH MODULES AS ENVIRONMENTAL EDUCATION.

9. GTZ PARTIALLY FUNDS THE ALEPPO MUNICIPALITY "PROJECT TO PRESERVE THE OLD CITY OF ALEPPO" TO IMPROVE INFRASTRUCTURE OF THE OLD CITY OF ALEPPO VIA COMMUNITY-UNCLAS SECTION 03 OF 04 DAMASCUS 003515

USIA

STATE FOR ARN/NEA-EMILLARD, INR

USIA FOR PAGNEW, NEA-DSREEBNY, LHALE, CHUNTER; I/GNEA-

AWALDEN; E/NEA-MQUINN, JSEDLINS; E/VGN- AOLEARY,

ASHIFLETT

E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: PREL, SY

Page 35

SUBJECT: NGO'S IN SYRIA: BUILDING BLOCKS OF CIVIL SOCIETY?

BASED PROJECTS WITH DEVELOPMENT COMPONENTS. A SERIES OF TOWN MEETINGS IDENTIFIED A NURSERY AS THE MOST IMPORTANT COMMUNITY NEED; PROJECT STAFF WORKED WITH THE COMMUNITY AND THE MINISTRY OF EDUCATION TO ESTABLISH SUCH A NURSERY. PROJECT ENGINEERS DOUBLE AS SOCIAL WORKERS INVOLVING RESIDENTS IN URBAN RENEWAL PROJECTS. ONE OF THE SOCIAL WORKERS IS A MEMBER OF POST'S CORE CIVITAS GROUP AND ATTENDED THE USIA AMMAN CIVITAS CONFERENCE IN AMMAN.

QUASI-NGO'S: AN EXCUSE TO GATHER

10. INTERESTING HYBRID NGO'S EXIST. THE SYRIAN COMPUTER SOCIETY (SCS) DRAWS TOGETHER INDIVIDUALS FROM DIFFERENT PROFESSIONS SUCH AS ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING AND BUSINESS. IN THE SCS, ELECTRICAL ENGINEERS FIND A DEGREE OF STATUS NOT FOUND IN THE PARTY-RUN ENGINEERS SYNDICATE WHERE BUILDING ENGINEERS REIGN SUPREME. THE SCS PRESIDENT, THE SON OF THE SYRIAN PRESIDENT, HAS INSISTED ON DEMOCRATIC ELECTIONS. THE SCS TO SOME EXTENT REWARDS COMPETENCE RATHER THAN PARTY STATUS. THE SCS PLAYS MANY ROLES -- AMONG THEM, SUPPORTING Y2K INITIATIVES AND PUSHING THE INTERNET, AS IT JUST DID IN THE SHAM 99 INTERNATIONAL INFOTECH CONFERENCE (SEE SEPTEL REPORT ON PARTICIPATION BY POST'S THREE SPECIALISTS). WITH NO REAL "MARKET ARENA" HERE, SCS OFFERS ITS MEMBERS A UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY TO GENERATE CONTACTS AND CONTRACTS. MEMBERS WHO VOLUNTEER TO DO PRO BONO CONSULTING WORK FOR GOVERNMENT PROJECTS ARE OFTEN CONTACTED LATER FOR MORE WORK.

11. WHILE MANY NGO'S PROVIDE SOCIAL SERVICES, SOME STUDY ARCHAEOLOGY OR PROVIDE EMERGENCY RELIEF. THE "SOCIETY FOR THE PRESERVATION OF URBAN HERITAGE" IN ALEPPO WAS FOUNDED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE CENTURY IN RESPONSE TO THE PURLOINING OF A MAGNIFICENT PRAYER NICHE FROM A MOSQUE INSIDE THE ALEPPO CITADEL. RECORDS OF THE ASSOCIATION INDICATE LECTURES AND ARCHAEOLOGY STUDY TOURS THROUGHOUT THIS CENTURY. TODAY THE SOCIETY SPONSORS MORE THAN A HUNDRED LECTURES AND CULTURAL EVENTS A YEAR. ON THE MARGINS OF THESE "POWER LECTURES," THE AUDIENCE NETWORKS SOCIALLY AND PROFESSIONALLY. A LOCAL SCHOOLTEACHER DESCRIBED THE SOCIETY AS "A PLACE TO GO, SMOKE A CIGAR AND LOOK FOR A JOB." ANOTHER SOCIETY, THE DAMASCENE "SOCIETY FOR NATIONAL EMERGENCY," WAS DESCRIBED BY A CYNICAL OBSERVER AS "A GROUP FOUNDED TO ASSIST PEOPLE IN DISTRESS WHICH NOW HAS SO MUCH MONEY IT DOESN'T KNOW WHAT TO DO WITH IT." THE GROUP FINDS SUITABLE PROJECTS, BUT IT ALSO SPONSORS LECTURES ON SOCIOLOGY AND CULTURE. SOCIETY MEMBERS ENJOY AN EXCUSE TO GET TOGETHER. ANOTHER DAMASCENE SOCIETY, "THE COSMOLOGICAL SOCIETY," SPONSORS LECTURES ON UFO'S AND SCIENCE FICTION. ALL OF THESE NGO'S PROVIDE PRIVATE FORA FOR DISCUSSION OF A WIDE RANGE OF ISSUES FROM JOB PROSPECTS TO HUMAN

Page 36

RIGHTS.

QUASI-NGO'S AND EPHEMERAL PROFESSIONAL ATTACHMENTS

12. THE MOST INTERESTING AND ELUSIVE SIGNS OF CIVIL SOCIETY ARE SMALL CLUMPS OF PROFESSIONALS WHO COORDINATE THROUGH IO'S AND NGO'S TO PURSUE HUMAN RIGHTS PROJECTS, UNDER THE GUISE OF SUCH GENERIC TITLES AS "WOMEN'S SOCIAL SITUATION." THESE GROUPS DISCUSS SUCH HEALTH ISSUES AS REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH, SUCH HUMAN RIGHTS ISSUES AS BATTERED WOMEN, AND SUCH LEGAL RIGHTS ISSUES AS INHERITANCE LAWS. PEOPLE OF SIMILAR THOUGHT KNOW OF EACH OTHER AND PURSUE CIVIC SOCIETY GOALS THROUGH BENEVOLENT SOCIETY ACTIVITIES. THEY DO NOT DARE TO FORM CIVIC SOCIETY GROUPS THAT WOULD COMPETE WITH OFFICIALLY-SANCTIONED GROUPS. ONE LAWYER, HOPING TO ESTABLISH A BATTERED WOMEN'S LEGAL DEFENSE HOT LINE WITH SUPPORT PROMISED BY AN IO, REMAINS FRUSTRATED TO DATE. THE SARG ALLOWS A HOT LINE FOR WOMEN IN MEDICAL DISTRESS, STAFFED BY VOLUNTEER PHYSICIANS AND SOCIAL WORKERS, BUT FORBIDS A LEGAL HOT LINE. IN A RECENT USIS CIVITAS SEMINAR, PARTICIPANTS VOTED DOWN A PROPOSAL TO FORM A COMMITTEE, SAYING THAT UNCLAS SECTION 04 OF 04 DAMASCUS 003515

USIA

STATE FOR ARN/NEA-EMILLARD, INR

USIA FOR PAGNEW, NEA-DSREEBNY, LHALE, CHUNTER; I/GNEA-AWALDEN; E/NEA-MQUINN, JSEDLINS; E/VGN- AOLEARY,

ASHIFLETT

E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: PREL, SY

SUBJECT: NGO'S IN SYRIA: BUILDING BLOCKS OF CIVIL SOCIETY?

ANYTHING OFFICIAL WOULD HAVE TO BE APPROVED BY THE GOVERNMENT.

13. PROFESSIONALS WHO FUNCTION AS INDIVIDUALS AWARE OF ONE ANOTHER'S EFFORTS COULD EASILY FORM A HUMAN RIGHTS GROUP IF THE AUTHORITIES WOULD ALLOW THAT. THE OFFICIAL HUMAN RIGHTS GROUP IN SYRIA IS A GOVERNMENT MOUTHPIECE. THE FREQUENT LECTURES ON HUMAN RIGHTS IN SUCH OFFICIAL ARENAS AS THE ARAB CULTURAL CENTERS, DO NOT ADDRESS DOMESTIC ISSUES EXCEPT AS IDEOLOGICAL REPETITION OF THE COMMITMENT OF THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT TO DEMOCRACY. A RECENT SPEECH AT THE DAMASCUS ARAB CULTURAL CENTER, BILLED AS "HUMAN RIGHTS UNDER PRESIDENT ASAD," DEALT SOLELY WITH PALESTINIAN AND ISRAELI HUMAN RIGHTS. WE DISTRIBUTE THE DOS HUMAN RIGHTS REPORT HERE AND IT IS WIDELY READ, BUT NEVER PUBLISHED.

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14. IN SYRIA NO PUBLIC FORA EXIST IN WHICH TO DISCUSS CIVIL SOCIETY OR HUMAN RIGHTS. LIKE-MINDED PROFESSIONALS CONSIDER SUCH ISSUES QUIETLY, IN NGO MEETINGS AND THROUGH INFORMAL SOCIAL LINKAGES. IN USIS CIVITAS SEMINARS, SYRIAN LAWYERS, EDUCATORS AND NGO MEMBERS DEBATE HOW TO COORDINATE THEIR ACTIVITIES, AND HOW FAR TO PUSH THE ENVELOPE. A WOMAN LAWYER ACTIVIST TOLD US THAT WHEN SHE USES THE TERM "WOMEN'S SOCIAL CONDITION" THAT SHE CAN SAY ANYTHING TO THE MEDIA, BUT THAT ONCE SHE USES THE TERM "HUMAN RIGHTS" SHE IS BLOCKED FROM SPEAKING. IN A WOMEN'S UNION SEMINAR TO CODIFY SYRIA'S POST-BEIJING WOMEN'S PROGRAM, PARTICIPANTS SAID THEY WERE ALLOWED TO SPEAK ABOUT CHILDREN'S RIGHTS (SYRIA IS A SIGNATORY OF THE CHILD PROTECTION CONVENTION). THESE INDIVIDUALS REPRESENT THE BEGINNINGS OF CIVIL SOCIETY IN SYRIA. THEIR ACTIVITIES ARE THE FOUNDATION ON WHICH LIKE-MINDED PROFESSIONALS AIM TO CREATIVELY "CRACK" THE OUTMODED AUTHORITARIAN REGIME.

EARLY

SECT: SECTION: 01 OF 04

^SECT>SECTION: 02 OF 04

^SECT>SECTION: 03 OF 04

^SECT>SECTION: 04 OF 04

SSN: 3515

<^SSN>3515

<^SSN>3515

<^SSN>3515

TOR: 990711072739 M3953894

<^TOR>990711073030 M3953897

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DIST:

SIT: BABBITT BUSBY GUARNIERI MALLEY NAPLAN RIEDEL SCHWARTZ STROMSETH

VACCARO

SIT: NSC

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PRM. Personal record misfile defined in accordance with 44 U.S.C. 2201(3).

RR. Document will be reviewed upon request.

b(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information concerning wells [(b)(9) of the FOIA]

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INFO: ////

SUBJ: TAKE 1 OF 2--Venezuelan Overflights, Gunrunning Viewed

TEXT:

UNCLAS 60

WARNING: FTS DOC ID: FTS19990806001563

WARNING:

WARNING: TOPIC: INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL, MILITARY, TERRORISM

SERIAL: (b)370708002499

COUNTRY: COLOMBIA, VENEZUELA

SUBJ: TAKE 1 OF 2--Venezuelan Overflights, Gunrunning Viewed

REF: (b)(3)007031599 caracas headline/venews www in english 29

jul 99 -- rangel on case of citizens incarcerated in colombia

SOURCE: Santa Fe de Bogota Semana (Internet version) in Spanish 2 Aug 99

TEXT:

[Unattributed article: "Hot Border"]

Page 42

[FBIS Translated Text]

The Colombian uncertainty on what can happen at the border has been accentuated by recent incidents with the neighboring country.

Border relations between Venezuela and Colombia have never been devoid of problems. Despite the undeniable progress that has been achieved by the negotiating commission of the conflict, which was created by the two countries, the incidents continue to recur. That is why Colombian authorities were greatly displeased by the statement made by Venezuelan Foreign Minister Jose Vicente Rangel last week, in response to a journalist's question concerning the alleged overflight by a Venezuelan aircraft over Norte de Santander in Colombia. The Colombians are sighting UFO's, Rangel had said. Apparently there are persons there who have a more vivid imagination than Gabriel Garcia Marquez, he noted.

The truth is that, according to reports available to the Colombian authorities, over the past weeks there have been Venezuelan overflights in the jurisdiction of the municipality of Tibu. The first occurred July 22 at 11:30 in the morning. According to the official report, three F-16 aircraft, belonging to the Venezuelan Armed Forces [FAV], that had been camouflaged, suddenly flew over Colombian territory, causing great alarm among the authorities.

According to official reports, the aircraft overflow at an altitude below 3,000 feet. According to reports supplied by military authorities of the zone, -- that were made available to the Colombian Foreign Ministry in the wake of the incident -- the aircraft entered 35 km inside the jurisdiction of Tibu. The entrance and consequential violation of Colombian airspace occurred in the sector known as Vetas de Oriente. The aircraft later passed over Tibu and Campo Dos and again overflow Venezuelan territory in the area of Tres Bocas (see map). This same operation had been carried out by Venezuelan aircraft on three opportunities, the most recent on July 27.

Arms at Discretion [subhead]

Another source of tension between the two countries has been Venezuelan gunrunning operations to the FARC [Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia]. Although Venezuelan authorities have been reluctant to admit publicly that there are ties between Venezuelan gun runners and Colombian guerrillas, the truth is that Colombian security organizations have evidence which demonstrates that the existence of such ties are close and cause of concern. Among the weapons seized from Colombian subversive organizations are FAL and AK-47 rifles, M-60 machine-guns, grenades, Browning pistols, Miniuzi submachine-guns, and approximately 35,000 rounds of ammunition from the neighboring country. According to authorities of the FARC 16th Front, which operates in Vichada, and whose commander is Tomas Molina Caracas, a. K. A. "El Negro Acacio," conducts permanent operations on the Venezuelan border.

According to authorities, another of the leaders of the group, is Josue Eliseo Prieto alias "Commander Esteban," considered one of the heads of finances of the FARC. The other leader is known as "Chiguere," who was imprisoned for a long time in Venezuela, but who managed to escape with the complicity of the prison guards in Puerto Ayacucho, capital of the state of Amazonas.

"Esteban" was killed by men of the 4th Army Division last May 26 in an operation staged between the municipalities of Garcitas and Totumo (Vichada). Four Venezuelan citizens were captured in the operation. Nonetheless, some authorities of that country

Page 43

charged that not four but eight persons were found there. Of these there were two dead and two missing, over which the Colombian authorities have no reports. This fact gave rise to a protest note from the Venezuelan Government to the Colombian Foreign Ministry. The Venezuelan agents claimed that the persons arrested had been subjected to tortures and mistreatment.

According to Colombian authorities, "Esteban" had the mission of buying 5,000 rifles to be taken to the demilitarized zone [DMZ]. The weapons would enter by air and waterways. One part of the shipment would be hurled from small aircraft in Llanos de Yari and another part taken by boat to San Jose de Ocune and Barranco Mina by men of "Negro Acacio." Some of these weapons, according to sources of the authorities, would be sold to residents of the DMZ for 1.2 million pesos for each rifle. Apparently the residents of Vistahermosa reportedly were the first to receive the weapons, according to judicial authorities.

A Delicate Topic [subhead]

However, the matter appears to be more delicate than just the connection between Venezuelan gunrunners and Colombian guerrillas. According to investigations carried out by Colombian authorities, one of the commanders of that group is Venezuelan. He is Ruben Dario Bravo Gomez a.k.a. "Malandro," for whom there is an arrest warrant out for drug trafficking issued in October 1997 by the prosecuting attorney's office 19, belonging to the Regional Directorate of Prosecuting Attorneys of Oriente. (more)

SECT: SECTION: 01 OF 01

SSN: 9301

TOR: 990806203242 M3995795

DIST:

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RR. Document will be reviewed upon request.

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INFO:

SUBJ: Santiago TV Highlights 271530

TEXT: UNCLAS

WARNING: TOPIC: DOMESTIC ECONOMIC, DOMESTIC POLITICAL, INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC, INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL

Page 48

SERIAL: (b)(3)20000727000074

COUNTRY: CHILE

SUBJ: Santiago TV Highlights 271530

SOURCE: Santiago Television Nacional de Chile Imagen Nacional in Spanish 1530 GMT 27 Jul 00

TEXT:

[FBIS Log] 1. At the request of the Eighth Region governor, the Interior Ministry asked that a visiting judge be assigned to investigate the disappearance of university student Jorge Matute Johns last December. Following the lack of success of the investigations, the State Defense Council will also become a party in this case. Remarks by Eighth Region Governor Jaime Toha. (1 min)

2. The Totolo Observatory also saw the images transmitted by Television Nacional de Chile last night, which UFO-ologists thought could be an UFO. However, the observatory reported that the images correspond to an airplane at high speed leaving a vapor trail, which in this time of the year reflects an orange color early in the morning and late in the afternoon. (1 min)

3. If Pinochet's immunity is removed based on assumptions, his family believes he should be given the opportunity to prove his innocence. Thus, they do not agree with him undergoing medical tests, which may lead to an acquittal. Remarks by attorney Pablo Rodriguez, who pointed out that it would be very damaging to his image if Pinochet cannot prove his innocence. He added that the dignity of the individuals should be respected, therefore no tests should be taken against his will. Remarks by attorney for the plaintiffs Hugo Gutierrez, who indicated that he believes that the Army will do the same thing they did with retired General Manuel Contreras (who is serving time in prison for the murder of Orlando Letelier in Washington), because nobody is above the law and everybody is subject to the rule of law. He added that Pinochet will indeed have to take the medical tests and testify before the court. (1 min)

4. The government and Unicef will commemorate Children's Day on 8 August with a national cultural celebration. Activities will be organized throughout the country to create awareness of children's rights. On that day access to museums and other cultural activities will be free. Remarks by First Lady Luisa Duran, who said that the best present for children would be to learn to respect their rights, especially those who are most vulnerable in society. This will take place after President Lagos announces the government's policy on children in Punta Arenas. (1 min)

5. The National Small and Medium Enterprises Council demanded that the government provide immediate and global solutions to the large debts of the sector. Furthermore, Economy, Energy and Mining Minister Jose de Gregorio affirmed that the authorities are committed to the development of small and medium enterprises. These issues were discussed during a small and medium enterprises national encounter that took place this morning. Transportation

Page 49

Association President Hector Moya said that the crisis that the sector is going through is due to the mistakes of the authorities and emphasized that they are not asking for debt forgiveness. Remarks by Moya and by Minister de Gregorio. (1 min)

6. Television Nacional de Chile's Executive Director Rene Cortazar was unanimously elected President of the National Television Association [Anatel]. He will preside over Anatel for the next two years together with Jaime Belolio of Channel 13 and Felipe Pozo of Chilevision. Cortazar said that the great challenge of the national television industry in the few years is the implementation of digital television. Remarks by Cortazar. (und min)

7. Public Transportation Association President Demetrio Marinakis paid a courtesy call on President Lagos this morning. Marinakis pointed out that the sector is willing to switch to natural gas vehicles to contribute to reducing pollution in the capital, provided that this change is subsidized by the government. Remarks by Marinakis, who said that they will have to see what the benefits of natural gas have been abroad, and that they are willing to go into it. Remarks by Transportation Minister Carlos Cruz, who pointed out that the issue of a subsidy will have to be reviewed. He added that he is in favor of applying restrictions on catalytic converter vehicles, but that the decision will be made in August. Furthermore, Transportation Under Secretary Patricio Tombolini dismissed the possibility of applying restrictions on traffic during the summer months. (1 min)

[Description of Source: Santiago Television Nacional de Chile Imagen Nacional in Spanish -- Government-owned, editorially independent television station]

THIS REPORT MAY CONTAIN COPYRIGHTED MATERIAL. COPYRIGHT AND DISSEMINATION IS PROHIBITED WITHOUT PERMISSION OF THE COPYRIGHT OWNERS.

(endall)

TOR: 07/27/00 20:26:05

DIST: SIT: NSC

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ORIG: AMEMBASSY PHNOM PENH

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INFO:

SUBJ: LETTER RECEIVED AT AMEMBASSY PHNOM PENH CONTAINING A THREAT AGAINST AMBASSADOR

TEXT: UNCLAS PHNOM PENH 001473

TERREP

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: ASEC, PTER, CB

SUBJECT: LETTER RECEIVED AT AMEMBASSY PHNOM PENH CONTAINING A THREAT AGAINST AMBASSADOR

REF: 99 STATE 88477

1. (SBU) ON 08/03/00 EMBASSY PHNOM PENH RECEIVED A LETTER ADDRESSED TO PRESIDENT BILL CLINTON OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND THE AMBASSADOR OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA TO CAMBODIA. THE LETTER WAS HAND WRITTEN IN KHMER (CAMBODIAN LANGUAGE) AND CONSISTED OF FIVE PAGES OF DOUBLED SIDED WRITING. THE LETTER WAS WRITTEN BY MR. NYMITH RANGSEY CHHORPONN, A CAMBODIAN NATIONAL, LIVING IN PHNOM PENH CAMBODIA.

2. (SBU) EMBASSY PHNOM PENH HAS RECEIVED MANY LETTERS FROM THIS SAME INDIVIDUAL, WHICH CONTAIN POLITICAL OPINIONS AND OFTEN SENSELESS WRITINGS. PRIOR LETTERS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED AT POST BUT HAVE NOT BEEN RESPONDED TO.

3. (SBU) THE TRANSLATED SUMMARY PROVIDED TO EMBASSY OFFICERS INDICATED THAT THIS LETTER INCLUDED A THREAT AGAINST THE U.S. AMBASSADOR TO CAMBODIA. THE LETTER DEMANDED THAT THE DOCUMENT BE FORWARDED TO THE U.S. PRESIDENT AND SIGNED. THE LETTER STATES "WITHIN TWO DAYS EFFECTIVE FROM THIS HOUR UNTIL AUGUST 6, 2000 IN THE MORNING, IF THE DELAY PASSES BY, YOU MUST GIVE THE HEAD OF HIS EXCELLENCY AMBASSADOR OF THE UNITED STATES TO FRANCE AND THE BODY TO JAPAN FOR USING HUN SEN PAWN AND RANARLDDH TO KILL CAMBODIA." THE LETTER CONTAINED

Page 52

VARLOUS POLITICAL OPINIONS AND MORE SENSELESS WRITING

LNCLUDING "SAMDECH PREAH SIHANOUK SHOULD HAVE THE POWER TO GIVE GUIDELINES IN ASIA AND IN THE WORLD,

TRANSFERRING NUCLEAR TARGETS INTO THE UNITED STATES.

WE, THE CAMBODIAN PEOPLE, CALL ON THE UFO SNIPERS TO

DESTROY THE WHITE HOUSE FOR THE FIRST TIME NO LATER

THAN THE YEAR 2000..."

4. (SBU) ON 08/04/00 ARSO ALAN CHIPMAN AND FSNI YARONG VAN MET WITH GENERAL SUN PAR LAO, DIRECTOR OF THE CRIMINAL DIVISLON OF THE CAMBODIAN POLICE CONCERNING THE LETTER AND REQUESTED AN INVESTIGATION OF NYMITH RANGSEY CHHORPONN. THE LOCAL GUARD FORCE WAS ADVISED TO NOTIFY THE REGIONAL SECURITY OFFICE OF ANY CONTACT OR FURTHER LNCLDENT CONCERNING THIS THREAT OR LETTER. THE SAME DAY ANOTHER LETTER WAS DELIVERED TO AMEMBASSY PHNOM PENH BY MR. SOKHAH PROM ON BEHALF OF NYMITH RANGSEY CHHORPONN. THE LOCAL GUARD FORCE IMMEDIATELY CONTACTED ARSO.

5. (SBU) ARSO AND FSNI CONTACTED THE CAMBODIAN PROTECTION POLICE ASSIGNED AT THE U.S. EMBASSY AND THE CAMBODIAN POLICE CRIMINAL DIVISION. THE POLICE DETATNED MR. SOKHAH PROM AND INTERVIEWED HIM AT MINISTRY OF INTERIOR AND WERE ABLE TO LOCATE AND DETAIN MR. NYMITH RANGSEY CHHORPONN. CAMBODIAN POLICE OFFICIALS NOTIFIED ARSO THAT NYMITH RANGSEY CHHORPONN WOULD REMAIN IN POLICE CUSTODY AT LEAST UNTIL 8/05/00 AND THAT THEY WOULD NOTIFY THE EMBASSY IF HE WAS RELEASED.

6. (SBU) ARSO CONTACTED USSS AGENT (b)(7)(c) IN BANGKOK CONCERNING THE LETTER AND INDIVIDUAL. ARSO ALSO FAXED A COPY OF THE TRANSLATED SUMMARY OF THE LETTER TO THE USSS OFFICE.

7. (SBU) CAMBODIAN POLICE OFFICIALS ADVISED REGIONAL SECURITY OFFICE THAT MR. NYMITH RANGSEY CHHORPONN AND THEY WOULD CONTINUE WITH THE INVESTIGATION. CAMBODIAN POLICE DEMONSTRATED PROFESSIONAL ABILITY TO PEACEFULLY DETAIN SOKHAH PROM OUTSLDE OF THE EMBASSY AND THEN LOCATE AND DETAIN NYMITH RANGSEY CHHORPONN. THE CAMBODIAN GOVERNMENT HAS LIMITED RESOURCES AND LIMITED SUPPORT (b)(6) REGIONAL SECURITY OFFICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DECISIONS OF THE CAMBODIAN POLICE AND THE DISPOSITION OF NYMITH RANGSEY CHHORPONN AND ANY THREAT THAT MAY REMALN IF ANY. WIEDEMANN

TOR: 08/04/00 23:38:03

DIST: SIT: beardsworth NSC CHRISTY CLARKER CRESSEY GORDON-HAGERTY GREEN

JARRETT KURTZ LIEBERTHAL MCADEN MONTGOMERY ORFINI OSIUS OWENS PRITCHARD SMITH THELEEN

Page 53

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PREC: PRIORITY
CLASS: UNCLASSIFIED
LINE1: PAAUZYUW RUEHVKA0678 3501136-UUUU--RHEHAAX.
LINE2: ZNR UUUUU ZZH
LINE3: P 151136Z DEC 00
LINE4: FM AMCONSUL VLADIVOSTOK
OSRI: RUEHVK
DTG:
ORIG: AMCONSUL VLADIVOSTOK
TO: RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2403
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 2746
INFO: RUEHYG/AMCONSUL YEKATERINBURG 0608
RUEHLN/AMCONSUL ST PETERSBURG 0719
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RUEHKV/AMEMBASSY KIEV 0003
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 0003
RUEHPG/AMEMBASSY PRAGUE 0002
SUBJ: TO LIVE AND DIE IN PRIMARYE: THE STRANGE WORLD OF YEVGENIY NAZDRATENKO
TEXT: UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 07 VLADIVOSTOK 0678
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, RS, BO, UP
SUBJECT: TO LIVE AND DIE IN PRIMARYE: THE STRANGE WORLD OF YEVGENIY NAZDRATENKO
TO LIVE AND DIE IN PRIMARYE: THE STRANGE WORLD OF YEVGENIY NAZDRATENKO

INTRODUCTION AND COMMENT

1. FOR THE PAST SEVEN YEARS, THE HISTORY OF THE PRIMARYE REGION, AND VLADIVOSTOK IN PARTICULAR, HAS BEEN WRITTEN IN THE FORTUNES AND MISFORTUNES OF ONE MAN: PRIMARYE GOVERNOR YEVGENIY IVANOVICH NAZDRATENKO. THE STOCKY METALWORKER AND WOULD-BE RED DIRECTOR WAS FIRST APPOINTED TO THE POST OF GOVERNOR BY FORMER PRESIDENT YELQTSIN IN 1993. BY ALMOST ANY OBJECTIVE STANDARD, HIS STEWARDSHIP OF PRIMARYE HAS BEEN DISASTROUS, AT LEAST IN TERMS OF THE WELFARE OF THE 2.2 MILLION CITIZENS HE IS CHARGED WITH GOVERNING. NONETHELESS, HE HAS WON RE-ELECTION TWICE BY LOPSIDED MARGINS, AND IS NO DOUBT CONTEMPLATING RUNNING FOR A THIRD TERM IN 2003. WHAT IS HIS SECRET?

2. IT TURNS OUT THAT NAZDRATENKOOS POLITICAL CAREER

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READS MUCH LIKE THE BIOGRAPHIES OF MANY POST-SOVIET LEADERS OF OUR TIME, INCLUDING FORMER SERBIAN PRESIDENT MILOSEVIC, CURRENT BELARUSIAN PRESIDENT LUKASHENKO, AND, SOME WOULD NOW SAY, UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT LEONID KUCHMA. DURING HIS YEARS IN OFFICE, NAZDRATENKO HAS GATHERED AROUND HIM A POWERFUL GROUP OF MEN DEDICATED TO TWO OBJECTIVES: FIRST, RETAIN AND EXPAND THE GOVERNORQS POLITICAL POWER; AND SECOND, USE THAT POWER TO ACQUIRE CONTROL OF EVERY VIABLE ECONOMIC ASSET IN THE REGION.

3. NAZDRATENKO HAS BUILT HIS POLITICAL POWER THROUGH THE SYSTEMATIC DESTRUCTION OF HIS RIVALS, THE COWING OF THE FREE PRESS, AND THE TRANSFER OF ALL BLAME FOR HIS ECONOMIC FAILURES TO OTHERS. AS PART OF THIS OVERALL STRATEGY, HE HAS ALSO SOUGHT TO DISTRACT THE PEOPLE FROM THEIR DAY-TO-DAY WORRIES BY RAISING THE SPECTER OF EXTERNAL ENEMIES, DRAWING ON POST-SOVIET RESENTMENT AT THE OUTCOME OF THE COLD WAR, AS WELL AS POPULAR FEARS OF CHINA, THE CENTER, AND THE WEST. NAZDRATENKOQS STRATEGY HAS WORKED SO FAR, BUT IN THE LONG RUN HE IS PLAYING A LOSER'S GAME. THE GROUND IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHIFT BENEATH NAZDRATENKO'S FEET, AND HIS POLITICAL FIEFDOM IS NO LONGER THE SECURE HAVEN IT ONCE WAS, AS RUSSIA HAS MOVED FROM THE YELQTSIN TO THE PUTIN ERA.

VIADIVOSTOK, THEN AND NOW

4. LIKE SO MANY OTHER CITIES IN THE FORMER SOVIET UNION, VLADIVOSTOK HAS UNDERGONE SOMETHING OF A METAMORPHOSIS OVER THE PAST DECADE. TEN YEARS AGO, VLADIVOSTOK WAS A MILITARILY CLOSED CITY, A STAID NAVAL TOWN, HOME TO THE SOVIET PACIFIC FLEET, AND A GROWING CENTER OF COMMERCIAL AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY. ITS POLITICS WERE REPRESSIVE, ITS ECONOMY UNREMARKABLE, AND ITS CITIZENRY WARY OF FOREIGNERS; BUT THE SYSTEM WORKED AFTER A FASHION. IN THE DECADE SINCE, VLADIVOSTOK HAS BEEN TRANSFORMED INTO A WIDE-OPEN PORT TOWN WHOSE PRIMARY BUSINESSES - FISHING AND TRANSSHIPMENT ARE UNDER PRESSURE FROM MORE EFFICIENT FOREIGN COMPETITORS IN JAPAN, KOREA AND CHINA. VLADIVOSTOK'S ERSTWHILE PRIDE - THE RUSSIAN PACIFIC FLEET SITS RUSTING AT ITS MOORINGS, OR SUNK IN THE BAY. THE PROMISE OF WESTERN INVESTMENT TO REVIVE UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 07 VLADIVOSTOK 0678

UNCLASSIFIED

E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: PGOV, PREL, RS, BO, UP

SUBJECT: TO LIVE AND DIE IN PRIMARYE: THE STRANGE WORLD OF YEVGENIY NAZDRATENKO

VLADIVOSTOKQS KEY ECONOMIC SECTORS HAS LARGELY BEEN

Page 56

UNREALIZED, DUE TO THE RAPACIOUS ACTIVITIES OF THE CUSTOMS AND TAX POLICE, AND THE HOSTILE ATTITUDES OF THE CITY AUTHORITIES.

5. IN MANY WAYS, THE CHANGES IN VLADIVOSTOK TODAY REMIND ONE A LITTLE BIT OF THE JIMMY STEWART MOVIE, QITQS A WONDERFUL LIFE.Q IN THIS MOVIE, THE QUIET AND UNREMARKABLE TOWN OF BEDFORD FALLS IS MAGICALLY TRANSFORMED INTO A CROWDED AND NOISY POTTERVILLE, WHOSE ECONOMY RUNS ON HONKY-TONKS AND MONEY OF DUBIOUS PROVENANCE, AND WHOSE RESPECTABLE RESIDENTS DONQT VENTURE OUT ON THE STREETS AT NIGHT. THE VLADIVOSTOK OF TODAY DOES NOT EXACTLY HAVE A CASINO OR NIGHTCLUB ON EVERY CORNER, BUT THERE IS OFTEN AN ADVERTISEMENT FOR ONE. ORGANIZED CRIME IS FLOURISHING. THE BIGGEST GROWTH INDUSTRY IS TELECOMMUNICATIONS (CELL PHONES). THE STREETS, ONCE RELATIVELY EMPTY, ARE JAMMED WITH SPORTS UTILITY VEHICLES Q OFTEN STOLEN Q AS WELL AS OLDER MODEL RIGHT-HAND DRIVE IMPORTS FROM JAPAN. A DECADE AGO, VLADIVOSTOKS LATE-NIGHT TV MORE OFTEN THAN NOT CONSISTED OF AN AUTOMATED WARNING TO TURN OFF YOUR SOVIET TV SET BEFORE YOU WENT TO BED, IN ORDER TO AVOID THE ALL TOO REAL DANGER OF AN APARTMENT FIRE. THESE DAYS, IT CONSISTS OF ENDLESS FIRST RUNS OF PIRATED AMERICAN MOVIES, WITH THEIR OWN FORM OF A FINANCIAL TICKER RUNNING ACROSS THE BOTTOM OF THE SCREEN. THE TICKER DOES NOT GIVE STOCK PRICES, HOWEVER, BUT THE NUMBERS OF ESCORT SERVICES AND CALL GIRLS. THE HILLS OF VLADIVOSTOK, WHICH WERE ONCE LAUDED FOR THEIR BEAUTY AT THE TURN OF THE LAST CENTURY, HAVE NOW BEEN SCARRED AND DOTTED BY THE UGLY DETRITUS OF THE SOVIET ERA: DISUSED INDUSTRIAL SITES AND HODGEPODGES OF GHASTLY APARTMENT BUILDINGS SEEMINGLY PLOpped DOWN AT RANDOM. MEANWHILE, THE CITY OF VLADIVOSTOK, AND THE ENTIRE REGION OF PRIMORYE, IS SUFFERING FROM A PROGRESSIVE DECLINE IN ITS BASIC INFRASTRUCTURE. THE BUSES RUN ON TIME, BUT THERE ARENQT ENOUGH OF THEM. THE ELECTRICITY IS ON AND OFF. FUEL FOR HEATING AND GASOLINE IS IN SHORT SUPPLY. AND THE CITY WATER SYSTEM IS, SHALL WE SAY, NOT GOING TO GIVE EVIAN SPRING WATER A RUN FOR ITS MONEY ANY TIME SOON.

NAZDRATENKOOS BATTLE FOR REGIONAL POWER

6. INTO THIS SITUATION HAS STEPPED YEVGENIY NAZDRATENKO AND HIS POLITICAL ALLIES. THEIR AGENDA IS NOT TO REFORM. NOR IS IT TO REVERSE THE DECLINE OF AN ECONOMY THAT STILL HAS REAL POTENTIAL. INSTEAD, AS IN SO MANY OTHER PARTS OF THE FORMER SOVIET UNION, IT IS TO AMASS POLITICAL POWER, AND TO USE IT TO ACQUIRE THOSE ASSETS THAT ARE STILL TURNING A PROFIT. IN HIS BID FOR POLITICAL PREEMINENCE IN PRIMORYE, NAZDRATENKO HAS BEEN REMARKABLY SUCCESSFUL. OVER THE PAST SEVEN YEARS HE HAS WON THE GUBERNATORIAL ELECTIONS IN 1994 AND 1999 BY LOPSIDED TOTALS, EVEN AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR

Page 57

THE INEVITABLE ACCUSATIONS OF FRAUD AND VOTE-TAMPERING. HE HAS ALSO MARGINALIZED MUCH OF HIS LOCAL OPPOSITION, AND, UP TO NOW, HE HAS SUCCESSFULLY FENDED OFF THE RELATIVELY FEEBLE EFFORTS OF THE CENTER TO BRING HIM INTO LINE.

NAZDRATENKO VERSUS YELQTSIN

7. AS HE HAS EXPANDED HIS POLITICAL POWER, AND AS EVIDENCE OF HIS MISRULE HAS ACCUMULATED, NAZDRATENKO AND HIS ALLIES HAVE HAD TO SPEND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF TIME AND ENERGY FENDING OFF ATTEMPTS BY MOSCOW TO REASSERT ITS AUTHORITY IN THE REGION. IN JUNE, 1997 UNCLAS SECTION 03 OF 07 VLADIVOSTOK 0678

UNCLASSIFIED

E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: PGOV, PREL, RS, BO, UP

SUBJECT: TO LIVE AND DIE IN PRIMARYE: THE STRANGE WORLD OF YEVGENIY NAZDRATENKO

PRESIDENT YELQTSIN APPOINTED THEN-FSB PRIMARY CHIEF VIKTOR KONDRATOV AS HIS PERSONAL REPRESENTATIVE IN THE REGION, GIVING HIM THE POWER TO CONTROL THE ISSUANCE OF LUCRATIVE FISHING AND TIMBER QUOTAS AND OTHER FINANCIAL POWERS, BUT PRESUMABLY ALSO CHARGING HIM TO ACCUMULATE QKOMPROMATQ ON THE WILY GOVERNOR.

8. KONDRATOV DID HIS JOB, AND FILED A REPORT WITH STARTLING DETAILS ON THE LINKS BETWEEN MANY OF NAZDRATENKOQS DEPUTIES AND ORGANIZED CRIME FIGURES (THE SHORT VERSION OF THE KONDRATOV REPORT, WHICH WAS PUBLISHED LAST YEAR IN QZAVTRA ROSSII,Q IS ATTACHED TO THE E-GRAM VERSION OF THIS MESSAGE). AMONG OTHER THINGS, KONDRATOV ALLEGED THAT NAZDRATENKOQS MINIONS SYSTEMATICALLY USED LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES AND ORGANIZED CRIME FIGURES TO ENHANCE THEIR PROFITS, STOLE MONEY INTENDED TO BUY FUEL OIL, AND ORGANIZED A SYNDICATE TO SMUGGLE GOODS VIA CHECHNYA. NAZDRATENKOQS PRINCIPAL DEPUTY, KONSTANTIN TOLSTOSHEYN, WAS ALLEGED TO HAVE: COLLABORATED WITH OC GROUP LEADER ALEKSEYENKOV TO SELL THE VLADIVOSTOK HOTEL AND SKIM OFF THE PROFITS; TO HAVE ORGANIZED THE SYSTEMATIC COERCION OF COMMERCIAL COMPETITORS WITH THE HELP OF OC LEADERS, AS WELL AS THE ABDUCTION OF UNFRIENDLY JOURNALISTS; AND TO HAVE USED MEMBERS OF VLADIVOSTOKQS PRINCIPAL OC GROUPS TO PROVIDE SECURITY FOR HIS MANY ENTERPRISES. VICE GOVERNOR CHECHELNITSKIY WAS ALLEGED TO HAVE PARTICIPATED IN FUEL THEFT IN COOPERATION WITH OC FIGURES (THE CASE WAS DROPPED DUE TO CHECHELNITSKIYQS QSUDDEN DEATHQ), AND FORMER VICE GOVERNOR SADOMSKIY WAS ALLEGED TO HAVE PARTICIPATED THE CHECHNYA SMUGGLING SCHEME NOTED ABOVE. IN ALL, SIX VICE GOVERNORS WERE NAMED IN THE

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REPORT.

9. IN A WESTERN COUNTRY, SUCH A REPORT WOULD BE POLITICAL DYNAMITE, TO SAY THE VERY LEAST. IN VLADIVOSTOK, IT WAS MERELY CAUSE FOR NAZDRATENKO AND HIS CREW TO START POLITICAL MANEUVERING IN EARNEST. WITH ECONOMIC CRISIS CONSUMING RUSSIA IN 1998, NAZDRATENKO SAW HIS CHANCE AND FORMED AN ALLIANCE WITH THEN-PRIME MINISTER YEVGENIY PRIMAKOV, LOUDLY DEFENDING HIM AT EVERY OPPORTUNITY AND ADOPTING NEARLY ALL OF HIS POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC POSITIONS AS HIS OWN. IN A FEW MONTHS, KONDRATOVQS POWER WAS FIRST CURTAILED IN FEBRUARY 1998, AND THEN KONDRATOV WAS TRANSFERRED BACK TO MOSCOW IN MARCH 1999. THE NEW PRESIDENTIAL REPRESENTATIVE IN PRIMORYE WAS NONE OTHER THAN VICE-GOVERNOR VALENTIN KUZOV, NAZDRATENKOQS PERSONNEL CHIEF AND YES-MAN. YELQTSINQS ATTACK ON NAZDRATENKOQS POWER WAS EFFECTIVELY REUFFED, AND THUS SECURED, NAZDRATENKO BEGAN TO MOVE AGAINST HIS PRINCIPAL POLITICAL OPPONENTS.

NAZDRATENKO VERSUS CHEREPKOV

10. NAZDRATENKOQS LONG-RUNNING BATTLE WITH HIS MOST PROMINENT OPPONENT, MAYOR VIKTOR CHEREPKOV, CAME TO A CLIMAX IN DECEMBER 1998, WHEN HE PREVAILED UPON PRESIDENT YELQTSIN TO FIRE CHEREPKOV AND SCHEDULE NEW MAYORAL ELECTIONS FOR EARLY 1999. SINCE SEPTEMBER OF 1998, CHEREPKOV AND HIS SUPPORTERS HAD BARRICADED THEMSELVES INSIDE CITY HALL, AFTER NAZDRATENKO HAD ARRANGED FOR CHEREPKOVQS NAME TO BE STRICKEN FROM THE BALLOT FOR THE FALL MAYORAL ELECTIONS, ALLEGEDLY FOR MISUSING CITY FUNDS FOR HIS OWN POLITICAL CAMPAIGN. THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN HAD BEEN MARKED BY HEATED RHETORIC ON BOTH SIDES, AND MADE THE RECENT UNPLEASANTNESS IN FLORIDA LOOK MILD BY COMPARISON. IN ADDITION TO ALLEGATIONS OF FINANCIAL MALFEASANCE, NAZDRATENKO ACCUSED CHEREPKOV OF BLOCKING 14 ATTEMPTS TO FORM A CITY DUMA, THUS MAKING VLADIVOSTOK THE ONLY MAJOR CITY IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION WITHOUT A LOCAL UNCLAS SECTION 04 OF 07 VLADIVOSTOK 0678

UNCLASSIFIED

E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: PGOV, PREL, RS, BO, UP

SUBJECT: TO LIVE AND DIE IN PRIMARYE: THE STRANGE WORLD OF YEVGENIY NAZDRATENKO

LEGISLATURE. NAZDRATENKO ALSO BLAMED CHEREPKOV FOR THE FREQUENT OUTAGES OF HEATING AND POWER, CONCLUDING WITH COMMENDABLE UNDERSTATEMENT QWHAT HAS HAPPENED IS GENOCIDE AGAINST THE RESIDENTS OF VLADIVOSTOK.Q NAZDRATENKO ALSO ACCUSED CHEREPKOV, AN ESP ENTHUSIAST, OF BEING A UFO LOONY, NOTING THAT: QI DONQT UNDERSTAND HOW IT IS POSSIBLE TO GOVERN THE CITY FROM UNDER A

Page 59

TABLE WHILE TALKING ABOUT LINKS WITH OUTER SPACE.Q

11. THE JANUARY 17, 1999 ELECTIONS FOR MAYOR WERE INVALIDATED WHEN, ONCE AGAIN, MORE THAN 50 PERCENT OF THE ELECTORATE STAYED AWAY FROM THE POLLS. HOWEVER, YURIY KOPYLOV WAS APPOINTED MAYOR IN DECEMBER, AND CONTINUED IN THAT POST UNTIL FINALLY ELECTED ON JUNE 19, 2000. KOPYLOV, NEEDLESS TO SAY, IS NAZDRATENKOQS PICKED MAN. DESPITE PERIODIC CLAIMS TO THE CONTRARY, IT IS EVIDENT THAT THE ABUSES OF WHICH CHEREPKOV WAS ACCUSED CONTINUE IN THE KOPYLOV ADMINISTRATION, AND WITH A VENGEANCE. NAZDRATENKO NOW LOOKS ELSEWHERE WHEN ASSIGNING BLAME FOR THE POWER AND HEATING PROBLEMS THAT PLAGUE VLADIVOSTOK, AND DOES NOT MENTION THE FACT THE CITY DUMA IS STILL NOT FORMED, HAVING FAILED TO ELECT A QUORUM (TWO OUT OF 22 MEMBERS) FOR THE NINETEENTH TIME IN DECEMBER, 2000. ON THE PLUS SIDE, HOWEVER, ONE SHOULD NOTE THAT THERE IS NO RELIABLE EVIDENCE THAT MAYOR KOPYLOV IS IN REGULAR COMMUNICATION WITH EXTRATERRESTRIALS.

THE ECONOMICS OF PLUNDER: NAZDRATENKO CLEANS UP

12. IN EARLY 1999, NAZDRATENKO MOVED AGAINST HIS OTHER MAJOR POLITICAL OPPONENTS IN PRIMORYE, INCLUDING KRAY DUMA CHAIRMAN SERGEY DUDNIK. DUDNIK WAS ACCUSED OF MISMANAGING THE NAKHODKA FREE ZONE, AND OF CAUSING THE COLLAPSE OF BANK NAKHODKA, AMONG OTHER THINGS. A YEAR LATER, ON JANUARY 23, 2000, DUDNIK WAS REPLACED AS CHAIRMAN BY SERGEY ZHEKOV, AN APPARATCHIK LOYAL TO NAZDRATENKO.

13. NAZDRATENKO AND HIS ALLIES ALSO SEIZED THE OPPORTUNITY TO MOVE IN ON THE MOST PROFITABLE COMPANIES IN THE VLADIVOSTOK AREA AND GAIN A QPIECE OF THE ACTION.Q A CASE IN POINT WAS FESCO Q THE FAR EAST SHIPPING COMPANY Q ONE OF THE FEW MAJOR ENTERPRISES IN VLADIVOSTOK THAT TURNS A LEGITIMATE PROFIT AND BENEFITS FROM THE INVOLVEMENT OF FOREIGN INVESTORS, WHO HAVE A FORTY-SIX PERCENT SHARE. NAZDRATENKO FIRST REPORTEDLY THREATENED ANDREW FOX, A BOARD MEMBER REPRESENTING FOREIGN INTERESTS, WITH A LONG TERM IN JAIL UNLESS THE FOREIGNERS HANDED OVER SEVEN PERCENT OF FESCO TO THE PRIMARY ADMINISTRATION. FOX LEFT THE COUNTRY INSTEAD. THEN, AFTER A YEAR-LONG BATTLE, NAZDRATENKO AND HIS ALLIES EFFECTIVELY TOOK OVER THE MANAGEMENT OF FESCO IN MAY, 2000, GAINING SEVEN SEATS ON THE 11-MEMBER BOARD OF DIRECTORS. FESCO HAS NOT FLOURISHED UNDER THE NAZDRATENKO MANAGEMENT TEAM. ITS ASSETS, ONCE VALUED AT OVER A BILLION U.S. DOLLARS, NOW ARE VALUED AT UNDER 400 MILLION. FESCO IS LOSING ABOUT TEN TO TWENTY PERCENT OF ITS ASSET VALUE EVERY YEAR.

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14. NOT THE LEAST OF NAZDRATENKOQS OBJECTIVES OVER THE PAST DECADE HAS BEEN THE TAMING OF PRIMARYEQS BOISTEROUS FREE PRESS. HE HAS SUCCEEDED FOR THE MOST PART, DRIVING MANY SMALL NEWSPAPERS OUT OF BUSINESS, AND MUZZLING MANY OF THOSE THAT REMAIN. NAZDRATENKO EXERTS SIMILAR CONTROL OVER THE ELECTRONIC MEDIA. LATE LAST YEAR, THE DIRECTOR OF THE INDEPENDENT RADIO STATION RADIO LEMMA WAS CALLED IN BY A LOCAL OFFICIAL UNCLAS SECTION 05 OF 07 VLADIVOSTOK 0678

UNCLASSIFIED

E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: PGOV, PREL, RS, BO, UP

SUBJECT: TO LIVE AND DIE IN PRIMARYE: THE STRANGE WORLD OF YEVGENIY NAZDRATENKO

AND TOLD TO WATCH HIS STEP AS HE CROSSED THE STREET, LEST HE QHAVE AN ACCIDENT.Q THE DIRECTOR GOT THE MESSAGE, AND RADIO LEMMA HAS TONED DOWN ITS BROADCASTS IN PRIMARY. IN LATE 1999, THE FAR EAST EDITION OF MOSKOSVSKIY KOMSOMOLETS RAN A HEADLINE SATIRIZING NAZDRATENKOQS ELECTION CAMPAIGN SLOGAN QTO LIVE AND WORK IN PRIMARY.Q DISPLAYING THE PICTURE OF A DEAD BODY ON ITS FRONT PAGE, IT LED WITH THE HEADLINE QTO LIVE AND DIE IN PRIMARY.Q THIS WAS PROBABLY AN ATTEMPT TO SATIRIZE THE OVER-ROSY VIEW THE LARQLY NAZDRATENKO-CONTROLLED MEDIA SOUGHT TO PAINT OF THEIR GLORIOUS LEADER. ALSO, PERHAPS UNCONSCIOUSLY, IT ECHOED THE THEME OF A PARTICULARLY UNSATISFACTORY AMERICAN MOVIE, QTO LIVE AND DIE IN L.A.,Q WHICH TELLS THE STORY OF TWO POLICEMEN WHO, IN THEIR PURSUIT OF A NOTORIOUS GANGSTER, DESCEND TO HIS OWN MORAL LEVEL. WHATEVER THE MOTIVATION BEHIND THE PIECE, IT ENRAGED NAZDRATENKO AND HIS ENTOURAGE. THE END RESULT WAS THAT THE MOSCOW HEADQUARTERS OF THE NEWSPAPER PRONOUNCED IT BIASED AND PROMPTLY INSTALLED A CENSOR, PROMPTING THE RESIGNATION OF ONE OF THE EDITORS WHO HAD AUTHORED THE PIECE. THE VLADIVOSTOK NEWS FACES SIMILAR PRESSURES, AND APPEARS TO HAVE BUCKLED TO THEM. AND IN EARLY DECEMBER, TWO REPORTERS FROM ORT TELEVISIONQS FAR EAST BUREAU WERE FIRED AND REPLACED BY TWO REPORTERS WHO OPENLY SUPPORT NAZDRATENKO. ZAVTRA ROSSII, WHICH PUBLISHED THE KONDRATOV REPORT (SEE PARA 8) WAS DRIVEN OUT OF BUSINESS. RECENTLY, WE CONTACTED THE EDITOR OF THAT NEWSPAPER, AND SHE DENIED EVER HAVING RUN THE KONDRATOV STORY.

15. A CLIMATE OF FEAR HAS TAKEN OVER IN THE PRIMARY PRESS CORPS, AND IT IS NOT JUST BECAUSE OF THE THREAT OF BEING PUT OUT OF BUSINESS OR THROWN OUT OF A JOB. ON DECEMBER 6, MAYA SHCHOKINA, THE DIRECTOR OF VLADIVOSTOKQS DALPRESS, WAS SHOT AND CRITICALLY WOUNDED BY TWO UNIDENTIFIED GUNMEN. DALPRESS IS THE MAJOR STATE-RUN PUBLISHING FIRM IN PRIMARY, PUBLISHING 87 NEWSPAPERS, OR 90 PERCENT OF THE

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REGIONQS TOTAL. IT WAS THE SECOND ATTACK ON SHCHOKINA SINCE SHE HAD REFUSED A REQUEST BY NAZDRATENKOQS REPRESENTATIVES TO CANCEL THE PRINT RUN OF MOSKOSVSKIY KOMSOMOLETS, WHICH RAN A NUMBER OF SCATHING ARTICLES ABOUT THE GOVERNOR DURING THE 1999 ELECTION CAMPAIGN. THE GOVERNORS OFFICE AFTER MUCH PROMPTING, SAID IT HAD NO INFORMATION ON THE ATTACK AND WOULD SEND INQUIRIES TO FEDERAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES AND PRIMARYEQS FEDERAL INSPECTOR, PAVEL LYSOV.

THE EMPIRE STRIKES BACK: PUTIN RENESS THE CHALLENGE

16. THE EARLY RETIREMENT OF YELQTSIN AND THE ARRIVAL OF VLADIMIR

PUTIN ON THE RUSSIAN POLITICAL SCENE PUT

AN END TO NAZDRATENKOQS DREAM OF RULING HIS FIEFDOM BY

THE SEA WITH MAJESTIC IMPUNITY. NAZDRATENKO AND HIS

COLLEAGUES CONTINUED WITH THEIR STRATEGY OF SUPPORTING

THE CENTER IN EXCHANGE FOR NON-INTERFERENCE, WITH

LIMITED SUCCESS. THEY JOINED THE YEDINSTVO PARTY, AND

TURNED IT INTO THE PREEMINENT POLITICAL PARTY IN

PRIMARYE. NAZDRATENKO ALSO ATTEMPTED TO ENHANCE HIS

CLOUT BY REGULAR TRIPS TO MOSCOW AND LIBERAL

DISPENSATIONS FROM HIS "ZELYONYY CHEMODANCHIK"

(SUITCASE FULL OF MONEY).

17. AT FIRST, THIS STRATEGY APPEARED TO BE WORKING. NAZDRATENKO WAS ABLE TO GAIN PUTINQS BLESSING TO DEAL HARSHLY WITH THE ONE REMAINING GOVERNMENT BODY IN VLADIVOSTOK NOT DOING HIS BIDDING: THE PRIMORYE ARBITRATION COURT. THIS BODY HAD RULED IN A NUMBER OF BANKRUPTCY CASES AGAINST THE BUSINESS INTERESTS OF NAZDRATENKO AND HIS CRONIES. TATYANA LOKTIONOVA, THE QREBELLIOUSQ CHAIRPERSON OF THE ARBITRATION COURT, WAS UNCLAS SECTION 06 OF 07 VLADIVOSTOK 0678

UNCLASSIFIED

E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: PGOV, PREL, RS, BO, UP

SUBJECT: TO LIVE AND DIE IN PRIMARYE: THE STRANGE WORLD OF YEVGENIY NAZDRATENKO

DISMISSED AFTER AN INVESTIGATIVE TEAM WAS SENT OUT FROM MOSCOW.

18. HOWEVER, RECENT DEVELOPMENTS SUGGEST THAT NAZDRATENKO HAS FALLEN OUT OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT'S FAVOR AND IS IN DANGER OF BEING OUSTED FROM THE GOVERNORQS SEAT. EARLY IN HIS TERM, PUTIN BEGAN REASSERTING THE CONTROL OF THE CENTER OVER THE REGIONS. SEVEN PRESIDENTIAL REPRESENTATIVES, OR QSUPERGOVERNORSQ WERE APPOINTED TO OVERSEE THE WORK OF VAST REGIONS. THE ARRIVAL IN KHABAROVSK OF GENERAL KONSTANTIN PULIKOVSKIY, PRESIDENTIAL ENVOY TO THE

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RUSSIAN FAR EAST, EFFECTIVELY SENT VALENTIN KUZOV, NAZDRATENKOQS TAME PRESIDENTIAL PEPRESENTATIVE, TO THE KNACKERQS YARD AND USHERED IN A NEW ERA IN CENTER-PRIMARY RELATIONS.

DARK SUMMERS, FROZEN WINTERS

19. DURING THE SUMMER OF 2000, SEVERAL AREAS OF PRIMARYE WERE HIT BY SERIOUS ELECTRICAL POWER BLACKOUTS THAT LASTED UP TO 16 HOURS PER DAY. DALENERGO, THE PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLIER TO THE REGION, WAS FORCED UNDER THE CURRENT COST-SHARING ARRANGEMENTS TO CUT OFF POWER TO CONSUMERS WHO DID NOT PAY THEIR BILLS, AND IN TURN DALENERGO WAS UNABLE TO FIND SUFFICIENT FUEL TO GENERATE THE POWER NECESSARY TO POWER THE GRID. NAZDRATENKO, POINTING THE FINGER OF BLAME EVERYWHERE BUT AT HIMSELF, PERSUADED MOSCOW TO ALLOW THE REMOVAL OF THE PREVIOUS HEAD OF DALENERTGO - A CHUBAYS MAN -- AND HIS REPLACEMENT BY YURIY LIKHOYDA, NAZDRATENKOOS DEPUTY IN CHARGE OF ENERGY QUESTIONS. UNFORTUNATELY, THE POWER SHORTAGES CONTINUED INTO THE FALL AND WINTER, AND SOON THE MAJOR PROBLEM FOR MANY OUTLYING MUNICIPALITIES WAS NOT LIGHT, BUT HEAT. NAZDRATENKO BEGAN LOOKING ELSEWHERE TO CAST BLAME.

20. AS THE FUEL CRISIS BEGAN TO BUILD, PULIKOVSKIY VISITED PRIMARYE IN EARLY OCTOBER - A VISIT UNDERTAKEN EARLIER THAN PLANNED IN ORDER TO COINCIDE WITH NAZDRATENKOOS HOSPITALIZATION. DURING HIS VISIT, PULIKOVSKIY COMMENTED THAT HE WAS DISPLEASED WITH THE QINEFFECTIVENESS OF FISHING QUOTA DISTRIBUTION BY PRIMARYE MANAGEMENT.Q WHEN PULIKOVSKIY COMPLETED HIS FAMILIARIZATION VISITS TO ALL THE RFE TERRITORIES ON OCTOBER 20, HE GAVE A PRESS CONFERENCE IN MAGADAN IN WHICH HE MENTIONED THAT HE CONSIDERED PRIMARYE TO BE THE QREGION WITH THE MOST IRRATIONAL MANAGEMENTQ,Q AND REMARKED THAT QTHE ECONOMIC SITUATION IN PRIMARYE HAS BEEN WORSENING FOR THE PAST FOUR YEARS, WHICH DEMONSTRATES THE ECONOMIC INCOMPETENCE OF THE REGIONAL ADMINISTRATIONQQ PULIKOVSKIY ALSO NOTED THAT MOST COMPLAINTS HE RECEIVED CAME FROM PRIMARYE. QPEOPLE DID NOT COMPLAIN ABOUT BAD HOUSING OR LOW SALARY. THEY COMPLAINED ABOUT THE GOVERNORQRS, MAYORQS, AND FEDERAL GOVERNMENTQS ACTIONS. THIS MEANS THAT THE LOCAL GOVERNMENT IS FAR FROM PEOPLE AND IS NOT PERFORMING ITS FUNCTIONS.Q

21. ON OCTOBER 26, PULIKOVSKIY GAVE A TV INTERVIEW IN WHICH HE SAID THAT THE PRIMORYE GOVERNOR AND QDALQENERGOQ MANAGERS WERE INFORMED THAT THEY QWILL HAVE TO RESIGN,Q IF THEY FAIL TO PROVIDE STABLE HEAT AND ENERGY SUPPLIES TO PRIMORYE. PULIKOVSKIY SAID THAT QIF THESE LEADERS ARE NOT ABLE TO STABILIZE THE ENERGY SITUATION IN THE REGION, THEN THEY CANNOT MANAGE THE

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REGION AND SHOULD NOT OCCUPY THE POSITIONS FOR WHICH THEY WERE ELECTED OR APPOINTED.Q

22. SINCE THEN, NAZDRATENKOQS TEAM HAS FAILED TO CURB THE ENERGY CRISIS IN PRIMARYE, THE EXTENT OF WHICH HAS UNCLAS SECTION 07 OF 07 VLADIVOSTOK 0678

UNCLASSIFIED

E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: PGOV, PREL, RS, BO, UP

SUBJECT: TO LIVE AND DIE IN PRIMARYE: THE STRANGE WORLD OF YEVGENIY NAZDRATENKO

BEEN SO SERIOUS THAT IT MADE THE MAJOR NEWS IN ALL FEDERAL AND REGIONAL MASS MEDIA, AS OVER 90,000 PEOPLE WERE LEFT TOTALLY WITHOUT HEAT FOR EXTENDED PERIODS IN SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES. PUTIN CALLED THE SITUATION QA CRYING SHAME, Q WHILE UNITED ENERGY SYSTEMS HEAD ANATOLIY CHUBAYS BLAMED NAZDRATENKOQS INCOMPETENT MANAGEMENT FOR THE PROBLEM. HE NOTED, IN PARTICULAR, THAT QWE CAN DELIVER THE HEAT, BUT WE CANNOT CHANNEL IT THROUGH THE DESTROYED MUNICIPAL INFRASTRUCTURE. Q NAZDRATENKO COUNTERED, IMPLAUSIBLY, THAT HIS TEAM COULD NOT SOLVE THE CRISIS BECAUSE PRIMARY WAS OWED OVER 5 BILLION RUBLES BY THE FEDERAL AUTHORITIES.

23. IN LATE NOVEMBER, NAZDRATENKO LEFT FOR MOSCOW QTO SOLVE THE ENERGY PROBLEM RESULTING FROM HIGHER-THAN-EXPECTED COSTS OF FUEL AND NONPAYMENT OF FEDERAL DEBTS TO PRIMARY, Q WHERE HE REMAINED FOR OVER A WEEK. WHILE THERE, HE MET WITH PUTIN, PRIME MINISTER KASYANOV AND NUMEROUS DUMA DEPUTIES. SIGNIFICANTLY, WHILE MANY DEPUTIES WERE CRITICAL OF NAZDRATENKO, HE RECEIVED STRONG SUPPORT FROM ZYUGANOVQS COMMUNISTS AND ZHIRINOVSKIYQS LIBERAL DEMOCRATS (THEY KNOW A LIKE-MINDED AUTOCRAT WHEN THEY SEE ONE). NAZDRATENKO RETURNED TO PRIMARY WITH PROMISES OF FEDERAL INFUSIONS OF CASH, BUT WITH FEW NEW PLACES TO TURN OR PEOPLE TO BLAME IF THE HEAT STAYS OFF IN PRIMARY. PUTIN, LIKE A CALCULATING FISHERMAN, IS SLOWLY DRAWING THE NET AROUND NAZDRATENKO, THE BIGGEST FISH OF ALL.

HOW WILL IT END?

$ \pi $

24. LIKE HIS POLITICAL CONTEMPORARIES, NAZDRATENKO FACES A FUNDAMENTAL AND INESCAPABLE PROBLEM: HE IS PLAYING A LOSERQS GAME. IN THE END, IF HE DOES NOT PROVIDE FOR THE SECURITY AND WELFARE OF HIS OWN PEOPLE, THEY WILL TURN ON HIM, AND HIS HOLD ON POWER, NO MATTER HOW ABSOLUTE IT MAY APPEAR IN THE SHORT TERM, WILL EVENTUALLY COLLAPSE. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT HE WILL SUFFER THE FATE OF FORMER SERBIAN LEADER MILOSEVIC, WHOSE OWN PEOPLE DROVE HIM OUT OF OFFICE, AFTER TAKING OVER A DECADE TO AWAKEN FROM THEIR DELUSION THAT SERBIAQS MISFORTUNES WERE ALL THE FAULT

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OF THOSE WITHOUT, AND NOT THOSE WITHIN. IT IS ALSO UNLIKELY, HOWEVER, THAT HE WILL LAST AS LONG AS BELARUSIAN LEADER LUKASHENKO, WHOSE PEOPLE ARE LEGENDARY FOR THEIR POLITICAL PASSIVITY, AND WHO HAVE MANY YEARS TO GO BEFORE THEY WAKE FROM THEIR POLITICAL SLEEP. WHAT IS MOST LIKELY IS THAT AT SOME POINT, A STRONGER CENTER WILL REASSERT ITS POWER OVER PRIMORYE, AND DRIVE NAZDRATENKO FROM OFFICE. WORD ON THE STREET IN VLADIVOSTOK IS THAT PUTIN IS GIVING NAZDRATENKO UNTIL JUNE TO STRAIGHTEN THINGS OUT BEFORE TAKING DECISIVE ACTION. THIS MAY SIMPLY BE WISHFUL THINKING, BUT THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT MOST OF THE PEOPLE OF PRIMARYE WOULD BREATHE A SIGH OF RELIEF SHOULD NAZDRATENKO BE REMOVED. IN THE MEANTIME, THE PEOPLE OF PRIMORYE WILL CONTINUE TO ENDURE THEIR SUMMERS AND WINTERS OF DISCONTENT, AND TO HOPE THAT THE FUEL WILL LAST.

SCHUMAKER

TOR: 12/14/00 23:09:35

DIST: SIT: BLACK NSC DAVIDSON ELKIND FISHEL HARRISON HINCKLEY MEDISH STRICKLAND WEISS WOLOSKY

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